Final Phase of Dublin Euro election campaign

Party	Euro Election 2004	General Election 2007	TNS-MRBI Poll, 15 May	TNS-MRBI Poll , 26 May
Fianna Fáil	23	39.4	16	14
Fine Gael	22	18.5	26	28
Labour	23	14.2	21	25
Green Party	10	8.4	6	6
Sinn Fein	14	7.1	14	11
Socialist Party	6	2.3	7	9
Other	2	10.1 including PD's	10 McKenna 7 Simons 1	7 McKenna 5 Simons 2

The latest poll data from The Irish Times TNS-MRBI poll shows that Gay Mitchell, the outgoing MEP and Fine Gael candidate has strengthened his position by 2 points and has every prospect of being elected on the first count. The Labour Party candidate, Proinsias De Rossa could also be elected on the first count.

There will be a battle for the 3rd seat and the Socialist Party candidate, Joe Higgins has strengthened his claim at the expense of outgoing MEP and Sinn Féin candidate, Mary Lou McDonald. McDonald’s poll showing has dropped by 3 points and this follows publicity about her poor attendance record at the Parliament – 55%.

While Eoin Ryan’s running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne has maintained her 5% share, Ryan’s has dropped by 2 points to 9%, the same as Higgins.  Byrne has served the city well as Lord Mayor although she was quoted in the media last week as advocating a sentence of community service for Frank Dunlop, who was convicted on his own guilty plea of bribing councillors over a protracted period in relation to planning.  The taxpayer funded a €500,000,000 million tribunal of enquiry to investigate these matters and the consequences of them – overpriced development land, appalling planning decisions and more recently, a burst housing bubble – I would have thought that Her Worship might have served her cause better by holding her breath on this matter.  Too many voters are enduring very costly consequences as an outcome of Dunlop’s bribes on behalf of property developers.

Patricia McKenna, who won 10% of the valid poll in the 2004 Euro election is showing at 5% (from 8%) but this has probably put a hole in the chances of Green Party candidate, Deirdre de Burca. de Burca has failed to make much impact in this campaign and the Green Party position with respect to the second referendum on The Lisbon Treaty is as ambiguous and opaque as the response of the Catholic religious congregations to compensating victims of child sex abuse. The Greens have been criticised for choosing deBruca as a candidate because her political base has been in Wicklow (Leinster constituency) but I don’t think that carries much weight.  But her campaign has been lacklustre, lacking either passion, or inspiration. 

I am not surprised that the Libertas candidate, Caroline Simons has failed to make any impact because she is contesting this election without having even introduced herself to her electorate. It is simply not sufficient to campaign on the basis of tittle-tattle shibboleths and overarching criticism of rivals.  The electorate would also seem hesitant about the concept of a Europe-wide political force being launched from Ireland in this election by individuals who have neither a political record of any apparent impact on community wellbeing.

Post-Lisbon Treaty Referendum Sentiment 

When the first referendum on The Lisbon Treaty was held on 12 June 2008, Dublin voted 51 - 49 against. The TNS-MRBI poll the week prior to the referendum showed 30% in favour, 35% against and 35% undecided. Those who campaigned against the Treaty last year (McDonald, Higgins, McKenna) are not achieving much traction from this in the forthcoming contest.  It will be interesting to discern public sentiment on this matter because a second referendum is pending later this year.  The outcome of the first referendum for each Dublin Dáil was as follows:

	Electorate	Valid Poll	Yes	No	For %	Against %
Central	57,864	28,265	12,328	15,816	44%	56%
Mid West	61,622	31,833	12,577	19,182	40%	60%
North	81,550	45,077	22,696	22,194	50%	49%
North Central	51,156	31,245	15,772	15,396	50%	49%
North East	52,432	29,991	12,917	16,973	43%	57%
North West	49,893	26,394	9,576	16,749	36%	63%
South	87,855	51,342	32,190	19,005	63%	37%
South Central	67,499	42,170	16,410	25,624	39%	61%
South East	81,743	27,871	17,111	10,644	61%	38%
South West	56,202	36,181	12,601	23,456	35%	65%
West	52,173	28,421	13,573	14,754	48%	52%
Dun Laoghaire	84,710	49,810	31,534	18,149	63%	36%
TOTAL	784,699	428,600	209,285	217,942	49%	51%

 

Impact on Fianna Fáil

The other factor that will be interesting to discern is what exactly will happen to the Fianna Fáil vote in Dublin on June 5th.  The party won 40.4% of the vote in the 2007 general election.  It holds seats in every Dublin constituency – two seats in seven constituencies and five others.

The following table illustrates the strength of Fianna Fáil in each of the Dublin Dáil constituencies in the last general election:

 

Dublin Constituency	FF Share of Valid Poll, 2007
North West	48.8%
South	45.6%
Central	44.5%
North Central	44.0%
North	42.1%
North East	39.7%
South West	39.3%
West	37.4%
Dun Laoghaire	34.9%
Mid West	33.0%
South East	28.7%