Sunday, May 31, 2009

Final Phase of Dublin Euro election campaign

Party

Euro Election 2004

General Election 2007

TNS-MRBI Poll,
15 May

TNS-MRBI Poll ,
26 May

Fianna

Fáil

23

39.4

16

14

Fine Gael

22

18.5

26

28

Labour

23

14.2

21

25

Green Party

10

8.4

6

6

Sinn Fein

14

7.1

14

11

Socialist Party

6

2.3

7

9

Other

2

10.1
including PD's

10
McKenna 7
Simons 1

7
McKenna 5
Simons 2

Irish Times TMS MRBI The latest poll data from The Irish Times TNS-MRBI poll shows that Gay Mitchell, the outgoing MEP and Fine Gael candidate has strengthened his position by 2 points and has every prospect of being elected on the first count. The Labour Party candidate, Proinsias De Rossa could also be elected on the first count.

There will be a battle for the 3rd seat and the Socialist Party candidate, Joe Higgins has strengthened his claim at the expense of outgoing MEP and Sinn Féin candidate, Mary Lou McDonald. McDonald’s poll showing has dropped by 3 points and this follows publicity about her poor attendance record at the Parliament – 55%.

While Eoin Ryan’s running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne has maintained her 5% share, Ryan’s has dropped by 2 points to 9%, the same as Higgins.  Byrne has served the city well as Lord Mayor although she was quoted in the media last week as advocating a sentence of community service for Frank Dunlop, who was convicted on his own guilty plea of bribing councillors over a protracted period in relation to planning.  The taxpayer funded a €500,000,000 million tribunal of enquiry to investigate these matters and the consequences of them – overpriced development land, appalling planning decisions and more recently, a burst housing bubble – I would have thought that Her Worship might have served her cause better by holding her breath on this matter.  Too many voters are enduring very costly consequences as an outcome of Dunlop’s bribes on behalf of property developers.

Patricia McKenna, who won 10% of the valid poll in the 2004 Euro election is showing at 5% (from 8%) but this has probably put a hole in the chances of Green Party candidate, Deirdre de Burca. de Burca has failed to make much impact in this campaign and the Green Party position with respect to the second referendum on The Lisbon Treaty is as ambiguous and opaque as the response of the Catholic religious congregations to compensating victims of child sex abuse. The Greens have been criticised for choosing deBruca as a candidate because her political base has been in Wicklow (Leinster constituency) but I don’t think that carries much weight.  But her campaign has been lacklustre, lacking either passion, or inspiration. 

I am not surprised that the Libertas candidate, Caroline Simons has failed to make any impact because she is contesting this election without having even introduced herself to her electorate. It is simply not sufficient to campaign on the basis of tittle-tattle shibboleths and overarching criticism of rivals.  The electorate would also seem hesitant about the concept of a Europe-wide political force being launched from Ireland in this election by individuals who have neither a political record of any apparent impact on community wellbeing.

Post-Lisbon Treaty Referendum Sentiment 

When the first referendum on The Lisbon Treaty was held on 12 June 2008, Dublin voted 51 - 49 against. The TNS-MRBI poll the week prior to the referendum showed 30% in favour, 35% against and 35% undecided. Those who campaigned against the Treaty last year (McDonald, Higgins, McKenna) are not achieving much traction from this in the forthcoming contest.  It will be interesting to discern public sentiment on this matter because a second referendum is pending later this year.  The outcome of the first referendum for each Dublin Dáil was as follows:

 

Electorate

Valid Poll

Yes

No

For
%

Against %

Central

57,864

28,265

12,328

15,816

44%

56%

Mid West

61,622

31,833

12,577

19,182

40%

60%

North

81,550

45,077

22,696

22,194

50%

49%

North Central

51,156

31,245

15,772

15,396

50%

49%

North East

52,432

29,991

12,917

16,973

43%

57%

North West

49,893

26,394

9,576

16,749

36%

63%

South

87,855

51,342

32,190

19,005

63%

37%

South Central

67,499

42,170

16,410

25,624

39%

61%

South East

81,743

27,871

17,111

10,644

61%

38%

South West

56,202

36,181

12,601

23,456

35%

65%

West

52,173

28,421

13,573

14,754

48%

52%

Dun Laoghaire

84,710

49,810

31,534

18,149

63%

36%

TOTAL

784,699

428,600

209,285

217,942

49%

51%

             

 

Impact on Fianna Fáil

The other factor that will be interesting to discern is what exactly will happen to the Fianna Fáil vote in Dublin on June 5th.  The party won 40.4% of the vote in the 2007 general election.  It holds seats in every Dublin constituency – two seats in seven constituencies and five others.

The following table illustrates the strength of Fianna Fáil in each of the Dublin Dáil constituencies in the last general election:

 

Dublin Constituency

FF Share of Valid Poll, 2007

North West

48.8%

South

45.6%

Central

44.5%

North Central

44.0%

North

42.1%

North East

39.7%

South West

39.3%

West

37.4%

Dun Laoghaire

34.9%

Mid West

33.0%

South East

28.7%

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