THE SECOND Lisbon Treaty Referendum is to take place in Ireland on Friday 2 October and the Irish business lobby is among many interests that are pressing for a YES vote. The latest to enter the fray is Jim O’Hara, General Manager of Intel Ireland, who argues that passage of the Referendum is ‘good for business, jobs, investment and, as a consequence, prosperity’.
The purpose of the Treaty is to enhance the efficiency of the EU and make it more coherent. Twenty three of the EU-27 states have already deposited instruments of ratification. Apart from Ireland, the Czech republic and Germany have still to deposit instruments of ratification.
Presidential assent has been granted in Germany following very strong support for the Treaty in the Bundestag and Bundesrat. The Chamber of Deputies and Senate of the Czech Republic supported the Treaty in February and May 2009.
Outcome of 1st Referendum in Dublin
The voters of Dublin cast 209,275 votes for YES and 217,942 votes for NO in the first referendum. The overall turnout from the electorate of 784,699 was 54.6%. The turnout in the European Parliament Election on 5 June 2009, 407,404 was slightly lower than the 427,217 votes cast in the first Lisbon Treaty Referendum. Six of the eleven Dublin Dáil constituencies voted in favour of Lisbon last time.
The following Dáil constituencies, outside Dublin, supported the first Lisbon Treaty referendum:
- Carlow-Kilkenny 50%
- Clare 52%
- Kildare North 55%
- Laois-Offaly 56%
- Meath East 51%
- Tipperary South 50%
- Wicklow 50%
Rejection outside Dublin was greatest in:
- Donegal North-East 65%
- Cork North-Central 64%
- Donegal South-West 63%
- Mayo 62%
- Kerry North 59%
- Louth 58%
Dublin - North of the Liffey
When the first referendum was held on 12 June 2008, voters on the north side of Dublin cast 86,862 votes in favour and 101,882 votes against – a margin of 54% against and 46% in favour. Voter turnout was 55%. There are 345,068 voters north of the Liffey.
Two Dáil constituencies on the north side of the Liffey, Dublin North and Dublin North Central voted a small majority in favour. Dublin Central and Dublin North West voted heavily against – 63% and 56% respectively.
Constituency | % YES | % NO | Turnout |
Central | 44% | 56% | 48.8% |
North | 50% | 49% | 55.3% |
North Central | 50% | 49% | 61.1% |
North East | 43% | 57% | 57.2% |
North West | 36% | 63% | 52.9% |
West | 48% | 52% | 54.5% |
Total Votes | 86,862 | 101,882 | 188,744 (54.9%) |
Dublin - South of the Liffey
Constituency | % Yes | % No | Turnout |
Mid West | 40% | 60% | 51.7% |
South | 63% | 37% | 58.4% |
South-Central | 39& | 61% | 62.5% |
South-East | 61% | 38% | 49.6% |
South-West | 35% | 65% | 64.4% |
Dun Laoghaire | 63% | 36% | 58.8% |
TOTAL VOTES | 122,413 | 116,060 | 238,473 (54.4%) |
There is a larger electorate south of the Liffey – 439,631 voters.
The business lobby in Dublin
69.4% of all the directors listed at the Companies Registration Office in Dublin are resident south of the Liffey, principally in the constituencies of Dublin South-East, Dublin South and Dublin South-Central.
The 30.6% resident north of the Liffey are predominantly in Dublin West and Dublin North-Central.
The business lobby is least prominent in Dublin Central, Dublin South-West and Dublin Mid-West.
The YES vote last year was therefore broadly in line with areas in Dublin where the business lobby casts its vote. Are the business lobby preaching to the choir and to what extent will their impact be heeded and responded to elsewhere by the electorate?
Economic developments since June 2008
What impact will economic developments since June 2008 have on the outcome of the second Referendum?
Early June 2008 | Jul-Aug 2009 | |
Live Register | 201,756 | 436,735 |
Number Employed | 2,108,500 | (Mar) 1,965,600 |
Unemployment | 115,500 | (Mar) 222,800 |
Capital acquisitions in industry | €1,112,700 | (Mar) €941,800 |
Imports | €4,825,800 | (May) €3,774,100 |
Exports | €7,298,900 | (May) €6,735,500 |
Retail sales volume index | 103.5 | 93.3 |
Retail sales value index | 106.1 | 90.1 |
The retail sectors showing the most dramatic downturn are:
Motor vehicles' –30.3%
Non-specialised stores, including supermarkets –5.2%
Clothing, footwear and textiles –4.2%
Bars –12.7%
Household equipment –16.1%
History of Irish referenda to amend the Constitution to facilitate EU evolution
Date | Issue | Votes - YES | Votes - NO |
APPROVED | |||
10 May 1972 | To Join EEC | 1,041,980 | 211,891 |
Turnout 71.4% | |||
22 June 1982 | Single European Act | 755,423 | 324,977 |
Turnout 45.0% | |||
18 June 1992 | Maastricht Treaty | 1,001,076 | 448,655 |
Turnout 57.3% | |||
22 May 1998 | Amsterdam Treaty | 932,632 | 578,070 |
Turnout 56.2% | |||
19 October 2002 | Nice Treaty 2nd Referendum | 906,317 | 534,887 |
Turnout 49.4% | |||
REJECTED | |||
7 June 2001 | Nice Treaty 1st Referendum | 453,461 | 529,479 |
Turnout 34.8% | |||
12 June 2008 | Lisbon Treaty 1st Referendum | 752,451 | 862,415 |
Turnout 53.1% |
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