Sunday, August 23, 2009

Business lobby weighs in on YES side of 2nd Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum

Lisbon_Treaty_ratification THE SECOND Lisbon Treaty Referendum is to take place in Ireland on Friday 2 October and the Irish business lobby is among many interests that are pressing for a YES vote.  The latest to enter the fray is Jim O’Hara, General Manager of Intel Ireland, who argues that passage of the Referendum is ‘good for business, jobs, investment and, as a consequence, prosperity’.

The purpose of the Treaty is to enhance the efficiency of the EU and make it more coherent.  Twenty three of the EU-27 states have  already deposited instruments of ratification.  Apart from Ireland, the Czech republic and Germany have still to deposit instruments of ratification. 

Presidential assent has been granted in Germany following very strong support for the Treaty in the Bundestag and Bundesrat.  The Chamber of Deputies and Senate of the Czech Republic supported the Treaty in February and May 2009.

Outcome of 1st Referendum in Dublin

The voters of Dublin cast 209,275 votes for YES and 217,942 votes for NO in the first referendum.  The overall turnout from the electorate of 784,699 was 54.6%.  The turnout in the European Parliament Election on 5 June 2009, 407,404 was slightly lower than the 427,217 votes cast in the first Lisbon Treaty Referendum. Six of the eleven Dublin Dáil constituencies voted in favour of Lisbon last time.

The following Dáil constituencies, outside Dublin, supported the first Lisbon Treaty referendum:

  • Carlow-Kilkenny 50%
  • Clare 52%
  • Kildare North 55%
  • Laois-Offaly 56%
  • Meath East 51%
  • Tipperary South 50%
  • Wicklow 50%

Rejection outside Dublin was greatest in:

  • Donegal North-East 65%
  • Cork North-Central 64%
  • Donegal South-West 63%
  • Mayo 62%
  • Kerry North 59%
  • Louth 58%

Dublin - North of the Liffey

When the first referendum was held on 12 June 2008, voters on the north side of Dublin cast 86,862 votes in favour and 101,882 votes against – a margin of 54% against and 46% in favour. Voter turnout was 55%.  There are 345,068 voters north of the Liffey.

Two Dáil constituencies on the north side of the Liffey, Dublin North and Dublin North Central voted a small majority in favour. Dublin Central and Dublin North West voted heavily against – 63% and 56% respectively.

Constituency

% YES

% NO

Turnout

Central

44%

56%

48.8%

North

50%

49%

55.3%

North Central

50%

49%

61.1%

North East

43%

57%

57.2%

North West

36%

63%

52.9%

West

48%

52%

54.5%

Total Votes

86,862

101,882

188,744 (54.9%)

 Dublin - South of the Liffey

 

Constituency

% Yes

% No

Turnout

Mid West

40%

60%

51.7%

South

63%

37%

58.4%

South-Central

39&

61%

62.5%

South-East

61%

38%

49.6%

South-West

35%

65%

64.4%

Dun Laoghaire

63%

36%

58.8%

TOTAL VOTES

122,413

116,060

238,473 (54.4%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a larger electorate south of the Liffey – 439,631 voters.

The business lobby in Dublin

69.4% of all the directors listed at the Companies Registration Office in Dublin are resident south of the Liffey, principally in the constituencies of Dublin South-East, Dublin South and Dublin South-Central. 

The 30.6% resident north of the Liffey are predominantly in Dublin West and Dublin North-Central.

The business lobby is least prominent in Dublin Central, Dublin South-West and Dublin Mid-West. 

The YES vote last year was therefore broadly in line with areas in Dublin where the business lobby casts its vote. Are the business lobby preaching to the choir and to what extent will their impact be heeded and responded to elsewhere by the electorate?

 

Economic developments since June 2008

What impact will economic developments since June 2008 have on the outcome of the second Referendum?

 

Early June 2008

Jul-Aug 2009

Live Register

201,756

436,735

Number Employed

2,108,500

(Mar) 1,965,600

Unemployment

115,500

(Mar) 222,800

Capital acquisitions in industry

€1,112,700

(Mar) €941,800

Imports

€4,825,800

(May) €3,774,100

Exports

€7,298,900

(May) €6,735,500

Retail sales volume index

103.5

93.3

Retail sales value index

106.1

90.1

The retail sectors showing the most dramatic downturn are:

Motor vehicles' –30.3%

Non-specialised stores, including supermarkets –5.2%

Clothing, footwear and textiles –4.2%

Bars –12.7%

Household equipment –16.1%

History of Irish referenda to amend the Constitution to facilitate EU evolution

 

Date Issue Votes - YES Votes - NO
APPROVED      
10 May 1972 To Join EEC 1,041,980 211,891
Turnout 71.4%      
22 June 1982 Single European Act 755,423 324,977
Turnout 45.0%      
18 June 1992 Maastricht Treaty 1,001,076 448,655
Turnout 57.3%      
22 May 1998 Amsterdam Treaty 932,632 578,070
Turnout 56.2%      
19 October 2002 Nice Treaty
2nd Referendum
906,317 534,887
Turnout 49.4%      
REJECTED      
7 June 2001 Nice Treaty
1st Referendum
453,461 529,479
Turnout 34.8%       
12 June 2008 Lisbon Treaty
1st Referendum
752,451 862,415
Turnout 53.1%      

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