Showing posts with label 2009 budget. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009 budget. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The Irish tax slump and Irish competitiveness

B Lenihan THE SECOND Budget that was presented to Dáil Éireann by Brian Lenihan TD, the Minister for Finance on 7 April was based on achieving a tax revenue target of €34.4 billion in 2009. Taxation receipts to the end of July were €18.68 billion. While this was 97% of the July target, a shortfall of €574 million was recorded.  This shortfall could be construed as a €13.5 billion shortfall if the 2007 tax revenues are the basis of comparison.

“Put simply, Irish tax revenues are close to 26% of GDP while voted government spending is 34% of GNP”.

To put this in context – total tax revenue in 2007 and 2008 was €47.5 billion and €40.77 billion respectively.

The 2009 target is therefore just €13.1 billion shy of the 2007 outturn so the shortfall must be seen against this background because this is what determined the government spending profile.

The make-up of the shortfall was spread across all tax categories, except excise, which is surprising given the severe downturn in new car sales. Excise is levied on transactions or events and not by reference to any time period. The main components of the €5.53 billion in excise duties in 2008 were:

Alcohol

19.24%

Tobacco

21.17%

Oil, gas and petrol

39.23%

Vehicle registration

20.36%

Sources of Shortfall

 

€ Million

Customs

14

Capital acquisition tax

23

Capital gains tax

40

Corporation tax

75

Stamps

86

Income tax

185

VAT

447

Unallocated taxes

37

31 JULY 2009

-574

Business Sector Impact

Five business sectors that directly contributed €25.87 billion of the 2007 tax revenue of €47.5 billion are currently under pressure. Three banks, Bank of Ireland, AIB and the nationalised  Anglo Irish Bank have been provided with €11 billion this year by the taxpayer to prop up their capital base.

Corporation Tax

The 2009 target for corporation tax is €3.74 billion compared to corporation tax revenue of €5.06 billion in 2007.

Financial intermediation and manufacturing alone paid corporation tax of €3.93 billion in 2007

Income Tax

The 2009 target for income tax is €12.47 billion but unemployment and the number on the Live register is 30% higher than last March when these targets were established.

The large sources of income tax in 2007 were financial intermediation €1.17 billion, manufacturing €1.21 billion, construction €857 million, real estate related activities €1.62 billion and wholesale / retail – including the motor sector, €5.56 billion.

Income Tax from self employed

The total income tax derived from self-employed in 2007 was €2.3 billion and over 39% was derived from the self-employed in the real estate business.

Tax component of Irish agriculture

I have written several times in this blog about Irish agriculture, pointing out that while EU subsidies have remained at around €1.4 billion over the past several years, the slack has been taken up by the Irish taxpayer and, now, by those who borrow on behalf of the Irish taxpayer. Agriculture subsidies are the equivalent to 90% of output.

The contribution of agriculture to the Irish Exchequer in 2007, a time when land was changing hands at extortionate prices was €747 million out of a total tax take of €47.5 billion.

The make-up of this is interesting.

 

 

€ Million

VAT

-€35,041

PAYE

50,775

Income tax – self employed

201,345

Corporation tax

24,933

Capital gains tax

501,095

TOTAL TAX FROM AGRICULTURE

743,107

Clearly, the sale of farm land to developers and the capital gains arising was the critical component of agricultural taxation in 2009.

The sector was reported to have employed 118,700 at the end of 2007. An average income tax payment of €427.75 per employee would suggest that there were very few prosperous people working on farms!

Value Added Tax

The value added tax paid in respect of professional services in 2008 was €33,541,000, a shade higher than the VAT paid in 2007.  You might think this encouraging.  But was it paid by a sector that was internationally competitive?

Competitiveness of professional taxpayers

The Annual Competitiveness Report 2009 has just been published by the National Competitiveness Council.  It discloses:

  • Accountancy fees charged in Ireland by a major international accounting firm for a junior accountant in Ireland at approximately €115 per hour was significantly ahead of the same charge in London and Copenhagen and almost double what is charged in Singapore and my beloved Boston.
  • The fee charge by a major legal firm in Ireland for a junior legal assistant per hour, excluding VAT was €300 her hour – significantly dearer than what is charged for counterparts in Boston, Maastricht, Copenhagen, London and Budapest.  This level of charge is almost 300% higher than in Singapore.
  • The cost of an ad-hoc service site visit by an IT technician in Dublin, €180 per hour,  was the second most expensive of the locations benchmarked.  The comparable charge in Boston was €50, Budapest €40, Maastricht €35, Copenhagen €25 and Singapore €20.

I never cease to be fascinated by the passive language of government reports.  Imagine an infant sucking its thumb.  This Report advises “cost competitiveness is showing signs of improvement after years of deterioration” and it proceed to inform readers that “overall lending declined by 1.4% in the year to March 2009, compared to an annual increase of 12.5 per cent in the year to March 2008”.  Allelluia! 

But when you realise that non-government credit is close to €400 billion, would it not be more candid to state that borrowing is so high the only trend open is a reduction?  Get real.

“Are we at the stage where we must acknowledge that the restoration of credibility must precede the restoration of competitiveness?”

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Ireland’s Fiscal Tightrope

brian-boru-celtic-harp The Irish Exchequer Statement for the five months ending 31 May 2009 show that the Government has spent €25.6 billion and had an income, from tax and other sources of €15 billion.  This leaves an Exchequer deficit of €10.5 billion, financed by borrowings of €8.9 billion and other deposits of €1.6 billion.  Interest paid on Government debt amounts to €1.58 billion.

The table below summarises the profile of tax receipts and compares these to Profile of Exchequer Tax Revenue Receipts 2009.  The State is €37.2 million ahead of projections in the aftermath of the April 2009 Budget.

Tax Receipts for 5 months to 31 MAY 2009

€ Million

Projected

Actual

+ / -

Customs

92,000

88,280

-3,720

Excise

1,655,000

1,753,832

98,832

Capital Gains

202,000

189,226

-12,774

Capital Acquisitions Tax

116,000

105,890

-10,110

Stamps

315,000

294,370

-20,630

Income tax

4,589,000

4,634,263

45,263

Corporation Tax

1,012,000

1,138,985

126,985

VAT

5,511,000

5,305,559

-205,441

Training and Employment Levy

831

Unallocated

0

18,046

18,046

TOTAL 

€13,492,000

€13,529,282

37,282

Spending at the Department of Agriculture & Food is €248 million more than this time last year and should be considered in the context of the output of agriculture and fisheries is a mere €3.88 billion, having dropped from €4 billion in 2005.

Health expenditure is €200 million ahead of last year and welfare spending is , predictably, €457 million ahead of this time last year, following steep increases in the Live Register.

One item of expenditure that is noteworthy is the €6.33 million paid to the Leaders of the political parties, pruned by 10% but this is partially offset by the overhead to run the Leinster House enterprise - €367,000 more expensive than last year.

The cost of the local and European elections amount to €8.5 million.

Cumulative Fiscal Progress – 2009

 

Month

Total Receipts

Total Expenditure

Exchequer Deficit

Borrowing

Dec 2008
(Year)

43,021,778

55,735,598

-12,713,820

30,310,525

Jan

4,281,998

5,029,215

-747,217

6,674,212

Feb

6,577,074

8,661,834

-2,084,760

6,398,172

Mar

9,433,404

13,154,149

-3,720,745

10,234,357

Apr

11,645,341

18,961,729

-7,316,388

6,579,469

May

15,090,952

25,678,595

-10,587,643

8,987,279

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

If the axe really fell on Irish Government spending, where would it be felt?

I was listening to Batt O’Keefe TD, the Minister for Education on RTE radio news this afternoon blathering about the government having a "€54 billion spending commitment to be funded by €34 billion in tax revenue" (if they are lucky!) He had been to the INTO conference in Letterkenny where, it is said, he received a ‘cool reception’ - no applause from the delegates.

What would happen if the Government really did swing the axe and align spending with revenue, as they will inevitably have to? Current outgoings cannot be funded by spiralling borrowings, on top of which provision must be made for extraordinary State borrowing to rescue the dumb, profligate overpaid bankers, after their delusionary programme to convert every dungaree-wearing driver of a Toyota HiAce van to become an Aston Martin owner wearing a navy blue crombie with a suede collar, imploded with an unspeakable deluge of bad debts and hand-washing.

The population of Ireland increased by 11% between 2003 and 2008. Our tax revenue increased by 27%. A growth in public spending of this scale may have been sustainable but our public expenditure actually increased by 60% between 2003 and 2008 - only to be surpassed by the emoluments paid to top bankers.

The Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources was the only government department which reduced spending in this 5-year period and this was accomplished by spending €50 million less!

Welfare increases, which outstripped those prevailing the neighbouring jurisdiction, were an important component of the overall increase. Welfare spending increased by €3.7 billion in what was a relatively benign environment from a welfare perspective. Unemployment in 2003 was 88,000 and the Live Register recorded 172,414. The labour force expanded from 1.89 million in 2003 to 2.2 million in 2008. We certainly needed to augment and enhance infrastructure to cater for this unprecedented growth.

IBEC advocated a radical cut-back in welfare spending before the budget. Its director general, Turlough O'Sullivan, is to retire shortly. He will be relieved to be beyond the ambit of socially dysfunctional politicians. But when the time comes for him to reside in a room full of geriatrics, who are sitting in a collective puddle of piss, he might reflect on what it is like to be thought of as nothing more than an inconsequential, voiceless 'demographic entity' in the calculus of Ireland's pertnership movers and shakers. There is nothing like the rasping, self-righteous cadence of a Northern Ireland accent on the media airwaves to emphasise this perspective, whatever one might say about the prudence of our generous welfare system. It is the perfect foil to the 'inheritance brats' as defined by Paul Sweeney, economic advisor at the ICTU.

The April budget was designed to raise €1.8 billion to cope with a collapse in tax income but there was very modest cuts in public expenditure.

If the Government was prune up to €20 billion off its spending to match its income and 2003 spending patterns were adopted as a guide the following cuts are indicative of what would be necessary to balance the budget at a departmental level:

  • Agriculture & Food -€866 million
  • Arts, Sports & Tourism -€313 million
  • Communications, Marine and Natural Resources –no change
  • Community, Rural & Gaelteacht Affairs -€235 million
  • Defence -€220 million
  • Education and Science - €3.35 billion
  • Enterprise, Trade & Employment -€409 million
  • Environment, Heritage and Local Government - €847 million
  • Finance / Revenue Commissioners - €284 million
  • Foreign Affairs - €440 million
  • Health and Children - €5.8 billion
  • Justice -€873 million
  • Social and Family Affairs - €3.70 billion
  • Taoiseach - €58 million
  • Transport -€1.07 billion
    TOTAL €18.46 billion!

But as the Live Register now lists over 370,000 people and and additional €4 billion in welfare expenditure has been provided for in the April budget, the foregoing cuts are nonsensical because, in practice, there would be no €3.7 billion cut in welfare spending and the net additional €7.7 billion to fund welfare would have to be obtained through additional cuts, over and above those indicated here, to reach the €18 - 20 billion spending cut target!