Immigrants especially hit by severe Irish employment downturn

IRELAND’S latest job figures, for Q2 2009, are devastating – 264,600 persons unemployed at the end of June 2009, an increase of 137,900 (+108%) in a year. This is an unemployment rate of 11.6%.

The number of unemployed males is 186,900 compared to 77,700 females. The number of unemployed males increased by 122%

The number in employment was 1,938,500, a drop of 174,300 (8.2%) in this period – representing a decline in the participation rate from 64% to 62.5%.

 

Changes in Employment Pattern

The drop of 174,300 in the number employed between the end of Q2 2008 and 2009 was borne more heavily by workers from the last group of States to join the EU – those that increased the EU from 15 to 27 Members.

Nationality	Number employed Q2 2009	Share of jobs maintained Q 2  2009	Share of jobs lost
Irish	1,663,900	85.8%	65.8%
British	49,600	2.6%	2.4%
EU 15 excluding IE and UK	34,100	1.85%	+1.9%
EU 15 to EU 27	123,700	6.4%	24.1%
Others	83,900	3.5%	9.6%
TOTAL	1,938,500

 

Employment among immigrants from the EU 15 (excluding IE and UK) bucked the trend and increased by 3,300 jobs!  The 42,000 drop in employment of the EU15 to EU 27 cohort was most severe in industry (10,800), construction (15,100), wholesale and retail (5,300) and administrative support and services (4,100).

There were 16,100 additional jobs in the public sector – public administration, education and healthcare.  14,300 of these jobs were secured by Irish nationals.

Gains in Employment

Apart from the extra 16,300 jobs in the public sector, the only other sector to record job gains were 2,400 in information and communication and 3,600 in finance, insurance and, guess – real estate category!

There were 5,000 additional jobs in public administration of which 700 went to non-nationals.  There were 4,100 additional jobs in education of which 4,100 went to Irish nationals; 700 were lost by non-nationals.  The health services yielded an additional 7,000 jobs of which 5,400 were secured by Irish nationals.

Changes in Unemployment

Unemployment among non Irish nationals increased from 26,400 to 50,900.  The impact of this 24,500 increase in unemployment was: Irish (2,500), British (2,500), EU 15 (excluding IE and UK) (500), EU 15 to EU27 (16,900) and Other nationalities (4,600).

Emigration from Ireland

The number of persons who emigrated from Ireland in the year to 30 April 2009 increased by 40% to 65,100 and natives of Eastern European Member States accounted for 30,100 of these and Irish nationals accounting for 18,400. 

Immigration to Ireland

The number of arrivals in Ireland declined from 83,800 in the year to 30 April 2008 to 57,300 in the year to 30 April 2009.  There were 20,200 fewer immigrants from the EU15 to EU27 Member States.

There was net migration of –7,800 in the year to 30 April 2009.  That was the first time Ireland experienced net migration since 1994.

Births

The Opera of the Poor is at the top of the Hit Parade!  Births for the year to 30 April 2009 totalled 74,500 – a number not achieved since 1896!

The number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 45,100 – facilitating a natural increase in population.  The low point in recent times of natural increase was in 1994 when the corresponding figure was 16,600.

 

Risk of credit card default in Ireland intensifies

US consumers are bearing a personal debt burden in excess of €1,732 billion and the IMF estimates that over €240 billion of this will not be repaid.  The credit crisis there started with sub-prime mortgages then moved to mainstream mortgages, car loans and, most recently, to credit card debt.

There has been an increase in US credit card debt default as unemployment there rises to over 9%.  The incidence of credit card debt default in the States typically mirrored their unemployment level.  The personal debt default trend in Europe is also deteriorating but has not been as severe as in the US.

The ratio of consumer debt to income has been rising to about 140% in the US.  It hovered around the 90% mark in the last recession.

This begs the question – what is happening in Ireland?  Irish politicians usually attempt to put the best possible spin on a glaringly adverse trend, with remarks such as “the rate of deterioration has slowed”.  It is true that the level of personal credit card debt in Ireland has declined as consumer confidence has waned and retail sales levels have collapsed by over 20% in the case of the high street and by over 60% in the case of vehicles.  However, the number unemployed has risen dramatically and if defaults by Irish credit card users were to mirror the American experience, credit cards providers will be seeing a growth of over 100% in irrecoverable debts, as the following table illustrates:

End Feb	Personal credit card debt	Number unemployed	Unemployment Rate	Debt default risk
2009	€889.5M	222,800	10.2%	€88.95M
2008	€1,092.6M	109,400	4.9%	€53.53M
2007	€1,008.1M	98,100	4.5%	€45.36M
2006	€870.9M	88,200	4.4%	€38.31M

 

The Central Statistics Office reported on 25 June that employment in Ireland had fallen by 7.5% in 2009 to 1,965,000 persons.  Full-time employment dropped by 176,200 in the past year.  The decline in the Irish labour market is being attributed to a decline in participation by 46,000 persons.  There is also a demographic aspect.  The Irish  labour force has grown through net inward migration which reached a peak in early 2006 when the labour force growth was over 100,000 persons and 70,000 of this was accounted for by immigrants.  There is now a lower level of net inward migration.

Business Exposure to Indebted Consumers’

Businesses are being obliged to pay much greater attention to the risks associated with customers dependent on credit and how to manage exposure to this.   Three benchmarks to keep track of include the ratio of credit sales to cash sales, gross profit and operating income.  The objective is to moderate the consequences of any change to a customer’s credit position.  Studies have demonstrated that credit card sales are more volatile as a consequence of changes in credit limits; transactions fees that can rise as defaults rise and these are borne by traders.  If a credit card processor should go out of business the risk accruing to traders will increase.  If the proportion of credit card users who default that a particular business does business with becomes disproportionate the risk borne by the trader increases.

It would be clearly absurd to abandon credit card sales but it is important to consistently monitor associated risk and volatility.

Irish immigrant population hit very hard by slump

The Irish Live Register for April 2009 recorded a record of 384,448 individuals, an increase of 188,850, or 97%, since April 2008, according to data from the Central Statistics Office. All immigrant groups have been hit hard but those who immigrated to Ireland from the states that joined the European Union in May 2004 have been hit especially severely.

There are 349,300 non-Irish nationals in the labour force. They comprise 15% of the 2.2 million Irish labour force. The April Live Register includes 77,850 non-Irish nationals – 22% of the total on the Live Register.

Some 44,727 are from those states that joined the EU in May 2004 – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia (collectively known as the Accession states EU15 to EU 27). These immigrants account for a labour force of 167,800, of whom 26.6% are now on the Live Register. They were attracted to Ireland by a minimum wage of €8,65 ($11.57) per hour from 1 July 2007 that is guaranteed under the Irish National Minimum Wage Act 2000. The corresponding figure in the UK is £5.52 (€6.21 or $8.31).

The Live Register is not a direct measure of unemployment. It also includes part-time workers who work up to 3 days each week, seasonal and casual workers eligible for a Job Seekers Allowance or Benefit.

However, overall unemployment in Ireland has also risen sharply from 93,400 in February 2007 to 170,600 November 2008 and 40,500 or these are defined as long-term unemployed. The number of unemployed from the Accession states is 16,900, a rate of over 10% and an increase in the number unemployed of 7,500, of 80% more in twelve months.

It is estimated that 210,000 people from Accession states arrived in Ireland since 2005. Three quarters of those who found work were employed in construction, manufacturing and service sectors, such as retail and hospitality. The total number employed in the public sector, education and health is low in comparison. The largest immigrant cohort is from Poland, but there are significant numbers from Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Estonia. Lithuania and Latvia are currently recording the highest levels of unemployment in the EU. Unemployment in Lithuania increased from 4.3% to 15.5% in the 12-months to 30 April 2009 while unemployment in Latvia increased from 6.1% to 16.1% over the same period. Unemployment levels in Poland has remained relatively stable moving from 7.4% to 7.7%.

This group comprise people predominantly aged in their twenties and thirties and tend to be male with the gender disparity most pronounced among the younger age group. There are relatively few children, or elderly people, among this immigrant group. Despite their relative youth, 42% are married compared to the 46% marriage rate of the native Irish. But almost 20% of the married non-nationals are not living in Ireland with their spouses. Their spouses have typically remained in their native land and this replicates the emigration pattern from Ireland over the decades before economic self-sufficiency. The majority of the immigrants from the Accession states have a secondary school education and slightly over a quarter have a third-level qualification.

The largest decline in employment in Ireland has been in the construction sector and the professions that serve it –(- 45,900) jobs lost in one year. But there have also been significant job losses in wholesale and retail (-18,200), financial and business services (-11,600), hotels and restaurants (-10,500).

Non-Irish nationals are obliged to be habitually resident in Ireland to qualify for social assistance payments in Ireland. The term ‘habitually resident’ is not defined by either Irish or EU law. However, it is intended to convey a degree of permanence – a regular physical presence enduring for some time beginning at a time usually in the past and intended to continue for a period into the foreseeable future. Length and continuity of residence are vital considerations

Non-Irish nationals resident in Ireland can qualify for social insurance payments (e.g. state pension, jobseekers benefit), means tested payments (e.g. jobseekers allowance) and universal payments (e.g. child benefit). 300 extra staff have been transferred from within the civil service to the Department of Social & Family Affairs to deal with the extra welfare claims.

Research published by the Economic and Social Research Institute indicate that non-Irish nationals are facing discrimination when responding to job advertisements with similar creden tials as an Irish native.