Where to now for Sinn Fein in Dublin?

THE President of Sinn Féin, Gerry Adams MP MLA, in a interview with Michael Moriarty Northern Editor of The Irish Times on 8 August stated that regaining lost ground in Dublin “is ultra-important because if you can get a critical active campaigning organisation there you are likely to get more publicity, to get the media exposure and so on”. What’s been happening to Sinn Féin in Dublin?

The 2002 general election was the first since The Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin won 40,450 first preference votes in Dublin and won Dáil seats in Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West and the successful candidate there topped the poll and surpassed a quota. Candidate stood in all 11 Dublin constituencies. Two of these, Larry O’Toole and Dessie Ellis, were established members of Dublin City Council. O’Toole polled 3,003 votes in Dublin North-East to secure fifth place in that 3-seater. Ellis polled 4,781 votes to secure fourth place in the Dublin North-West 3-seater – not a breakthrough on their local council vote.

The party polled 51,943 votes in the 2004 local elections in Dublin and secured 12.2% of all votes cast in the three Dublin local authorities. They performed slightly better north of the Liffey securing a 14.5% share of the vote compared to a 10.5% share south of the Liffey. Top vote getters O’Toole polled 4,497 votes in Artane and Ellis polled 4,300 votes in Finglas. Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Dublin City Council, 3 seats on South Dublin County Council, 1 seat on Fingal County County Council and none on Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council. However, four of their winners, O’Toole, Ellis, Kehoe and Forde surpassed a quota in 2002 but Ellis was the only one to emulate this in 2004.

The 2004 European Parliament Election enticed a higher turnout in Dublin than in 1999. The valid poll increased from 286,684 votes to 421,897 votes. Mary Lou McDonald polled 60,395 votes and won the fourth of four seats. When McDonald stood as a candidate in Dublin West in the 2002 general election she polled 2,404 votes. She stood as a candidate in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election and polled 3,182 votes.

The 2007 general election resulted in a significant shrinkage in support for Sinn Féin. The party won 35,256 votes in the 11 Dublin constituencies – representing a 7% share of the Dublin vote and 16,687 fewer than in the previous general election. They secured just one Dáil seat that of Aengus Ó’Snodaigh in Dublin South-Central. He won the fifth seat with 4,825 votes, 776 fewer than in 2002. The vote of the star performed in 2002, Seán Crowe plummeted to 5,066. They lost ground in 9 of the 11 constituencies and particularly so in Dublin South-West (-8.1%), Dublin Central (-5.4%) and Dublin West (-3.2%). The extent of the overall downturn was consistent, north and south of the Liffey.

There was a further contraction in support in the 2009 local elections. A total of 36,241 votes were won in the three Dublin local authority areas compared to 51,953 votes in the previous local election – a 30% reversal in voter support.

Larry O’Toole’s star waned when he polled just 2,702 votes in Artane, just shy of a quota. Dessie Ellis also took a hit at the polls in Finglas when he won 3,263 votes compared to the 4,300 he won in 2004. They have five seats on Dublin City Council and would have had five if Councillor Christy Burke had not abandoned his 25-year stint as a Sinn Féin councillor and Councillor Louise Minihan had not opted to become an Independent on the grounds that she “no longer supports or believes in the party”.  While they had a winner in Cabra-Glasnevin in 2009, possibly as a consequence of the electoral travails of ‘the brudder’, Maurice Ahern, their vote in this area was down by 12.5%.  The endured a similar haircut in South-East Inner City and in Tallaght-Central, although Sean Crowe won a seat on the 9th count.

Mary Lou McDonald lost her bid to secure one of the 3 seats in the Dublin European Parliament election. Her vote dropped to 47,928 despite her elevation to the role of Vice President.

Summary of Sinn Votes in Dublin

	1st Preference Votes
2002 – General Election	40,450
2004 - Local Election	51,943
2004 – European Parliament Election	47,928
2007 – General Election	35,356
2009 – Local Election	36,241
2009 – European Parliament Election	47,928

Dublin by-elections

The two Dublin by-elections in 2009 did not any relief to the prevailing trend. While Councillor Christy Burke picked up 588 more votes than Mary Lou McDonald did in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election that compares to the 138 votes lost in the Dublin South by-election.

Floating Vote, general elections.

The floating vote in each of these elections caries quite significantly from one to another.

The floating vote between the two general elections as 13.4%. An extra 17,842 voters turned out in 2007 and 43,414 who voted in 2004 changed their vote in 2007.

The floating vote between the two sets of local elections was 85,357 – 20.1%. The losers were Fianna Fáil (30,490), Greens (13,871), Sinn Féin (15,702), Progressive Democrats – now obsolete (24,631), Socialists (663) and a lower turnout of 17,037 voters. Those who gained were Fine Gael (20,151) and Labour (27,157)

The floating vote between the two Euro elections was 16.3% in Dublin. The turnout was lower by 15,257 and the losers were Fianna Fáil (23,648), Labour (11,580), Sinn Féin (12,467) and Greens (21,359).

 

Vote transfer patterns, general elections

	2002	2007
North of the Liffey
Received	3,003	2,410
Gave	10,857	12,145
South of the Liffey
Received	3,831	3,708
Gave	11,974	9,233

 

 

This is a function of when a candidate is eliminated but the message is that there are relatively few votes being transferred to Sinn Féin. 

 

Mr Adams refers to future ambitions in the context of they being ‘a long haul’. I wonder do the electorate in the State have the same attitude to Sinn Féin as the electorate in Northern Ireland have to candidates sponsored by the Tories and the Labour Party.

There is much soul searching to be done and I reckon that the electorate need more to stimulate them than the sight of Martin Ferris TD greeting and facilitating two convicts on their release from Castlerea Prison at the conclusion of their sentence for killing Garda Jerry McCabe on duty.

Dublin European Parliament Election Postscript

Now that the dust has settled it is interesting to reflect who were the ‘king-makers’ in the Dublin European Parliament election on 5 June by comparing the vote transfers in 2009 with those of the previous Euro election on 11 June 2004

Electorate

The electorate in 2009 at 812,465, was slightly less than in 2004.  The total valid poll was lower at 406,630 compared to 421,897 in 2004.  As there were only 3 seats to be filled in 2009 the quota was higher at 101,658 compared to 84,380 last time.

Fianna Fail

The outgoing MEP, Eoin Ryan polled 55,346 in 2009, slightly less than the 61,681 he polled in 2004.  But his running mate this time, former Lord Mayor of Dublin, Eibhlin Byrne polled over 17,300 few votes than Ryan’s running mate last time, Royston Brady.  He never recovered ground and his widely predicted defeat materialised. Byrne was an excellent and gracious Lord Mayor but the tide against Fianna Fail was overwhelming.

Fine Gael

Gay Mitchell polled 96,715 votes this time and this was a real boost for Fine Gael in Dublin whose electoral efforts in the capital did not surpass 90,000 votes in the last several elections.  When he achieved quota on Count 4, half of Mitchell’s surplus of 2,755 votes went to Proinsias De Rossa but over 20% went to Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail.

Labour

De Rossa’s polled a very credible 83,471 votes as a solo candidate.  He had a running mate in 2004, Ivana Bacik, who polled over 40,000 votes.

Green Party

Deirdre de Burca polled 19,086 votes, less than half the 40,000 votes the Greens have polled in greater Dublin in the past several elections.  Former Green Party MEP, Patricia McKenna, polled 17,521 votes in 2009, less than half of what she achieved as a Green Party candidate.  However, she stayed in the race longer than de Burca, having achieved over 4,000 second preferences from Simons, the Libertas candidate and 2,833 from de Burca.  Approximately 18% of deBurca’s second preferences went to Fianna Fail but only 9.6% of Fianna Fail transfers went to The Green Party

Sinn Fein

The votes were simply not there this time for Mary Lou McDonald,  She polled an exceptional 60,395 first preference votes in 2004 but this time she just polled 47,928 and never caught up. She got over 2,100 second preferences from de Burca and over 2,700 from McKenna.

Socialist Party

The sun and moon were perfectly aligned this time for Joe Higgins who won 0ver 50,000 first preferences in 2009 compared to the 23,218 he polled in 2004. He obtained a steady amount of second preference from the Independents and McKenna which helped put a margin of 2,800 votes between himself and McDonald when she dropped out at Count 6.  Higgins collected over 27,000 of her second preferences which meant that he was in the winners enclosure.

Dublin Euro election outcome taking shape

The TNS/MRBI poll published in The Irish Times on 15^th and 16th May indicates that Fianna Fáil, with an 16% share of the poll (Eoin Ryan 11%, Eibhlin Byrne 5%) in Dublin, is faced with a real struggle to maintain its European Parliament seat in Dublin on June 5th . The party achieved a 23% share of the valid poll in the 2004 Euro election in Dublin. An 11% share of an opinion poll now is 14 percentage points short of quota. Where will transfers come from to fill this deficit?

The satisfaction rating of the Government at 10% is at an all-time historic low, and compares to 14% last February, 18% last November and 46% last June. How will the incandesence of voters find expression on June 5th among those now without a job, or the prospect of a job, or among those who have just seen at the end of May a further chink of their income confiscated in taxation? This government has allowed the Irish economy to behave since 2003 like a high-speed vehicle that had no brakes, no anti-roll bar, an engine with no coolant and no spare wheel. This posture was to suckle the vanity and delusion of a cluster of red-neck property developers, dinasour bankers and other sundry carpetbaggers. This government presided over an economy where citizens were paying up to 15 times their annual income for a very basic home, often in a very remote location. That is the direct consequence of politicians corrupting the planning process - when ten's of thousands of pounds and euro are transmitted in brief cases and brown envelopes. The chickens are coming home to roost. The voters will deliver their brown envelope at the end of a red-hot poker on June 5th and in subsequent elections. The cronies, the brothers', the sons' and daughters', the spouses' and the lovers' have will learn if inbreeding, nepotism and stroke politics is still attracting voter support.

The average satisfaction rating for the government previously in each of the past six years highlights the depth of the collapse in public support of the Government.

Average Annual Satisfaction with Government

2008	36%
2007	45%
2006	46%
2005	45%
2004	37%
2003	28%
	Source:TNS/MRBI

Fine Gael, who have a achieved a 6% gain in its share in indicative first preference support nationally in hypothetical general election have also improved their position in Dublin, no doubt partially attributable to the attraction of George Lee as their candidate in the Dublin South by-election. Gay Mitchell is achieving 26% support in a hypothetical Euro poll - 4% more than accomplished in the 2004 Euro election. Mitchell is considered to have been the most capable of the Irish MEP's

The Labour Party dropped 4 percentage points nationally and it Dublin stand at 21%, which is a 2% gain on 2004.

While Fianna Fáil is more convulsed by nepotism and inbreeding and the consequences from this, the Labour Party have a real challenge with respect to the age profile of their Dáil team. The average age of their current 20 members, today, May 15th 2009, is 57 years+ and this average will be well north of 60 years by the next scheduled date for a general election – May 2012. A colleague commented to me earlier that “all of their people are the same age as my father, or older” and younger voters will not identify with ‘daddy-clones’! Twelve of the curerent 20 deputies will be over 60 years old and the youngest will be 40. Many of the current cohort enjoy considerable personal support but this would not automatically transfer to a successor candidate as has been shown in places such as Cork South-West and Tipperary. de Rossa is 69 years old so he will be like an ancient cardinal if he were to remain an MEP until 2014.

Given the collapse of public confidence in this government, it is likely that that turnout in the European and local elections will be high as voters register their preferences directly. This will mean a quota in the region of 105,000 votes in the Dublin Euro constituency - 21,000 more than the 2004 quota.

Fine Gael support is particularly strong among those aged 50 and over but, reassuringly for FG, it has even support across the demographic spectrum. Fianna Fáil support is especially weak among the 35-49 age cohort – people with young families, but it is also weak among the 18-35 year olds. Fine Gael is strong among the AB social cohort while Fianna Fáil does worst among the ABC1 cohort.

The Green Party is attracting 6% support in Dublin and its support base is strongest among the 18-24 year olds and the ABC1 social cohort but is weakening since the 2007 general election. Their candidate, de Burca, has neither said anything, or done anything, to make a strong enough impact so far to put her into contention. It would be helpful if voters were to know what the party's stance with respect to the next referendum on The Lisbon Treaty before they cast their vote on June 5th. After all, this is an election to populate the European Parliament and the outcome of this referendum will define Ireland's relationship to the EU.

Sinn Fein is attracting 14% support. Its support is lowest among the AB social cohort but rises to 13% nationally among the C1working class category. This level of support is comparable to the share of the 2004 valid poll but is 11% short of quota. McDonald and deRossa were elected on the 6th count.

The Independent candidate, Patricia McKenna, achieved 8% in the TNS/MRBI poll while Joe Higgins, the Socialist achieved 7%. Higgins secured 23,000 votes in the 2004 election but he and his counterparts only obtained 11,500 votes in Dublin in the 2007 general election.

The Libertas candidate, at 1%, does not feature on the voters' radar. This is not surprising as she has said nothing to indicate what her potential competencies as an MEP would be. Her literature makes out of context comments about what she would like the electorate to believe are the vanalities of her rivals but cloaks her own identity in an absolutely opaque shroud. A wise electorate do not throw their support behind ghost candidates or vacuous slogans.

National Trends

	General Election Result 17 May 2002	General Election Result 24 May 2007	National Euro Election Result May 2004	TNS/MRBI Poll Feb 2009	TNS/MRBI Poll May 2009
Fianna Fáil	41.5%	41.5%	29.5%	22%	21%
Fine Gael	22.5%	27.3%	27.8%	32%	36%
Lab	10.8%	10.1%	10.6%	24%	20%
Green	3.8%	4.7%	4.3%	4%	3%
Sinn Féin	6.5%	6.9%	11.1%	9%	9%
Others	14.9%	9.5%	16.8%	9%	9%

This ought to be a fascinating set of elections because the voters will be mobilised and they are greatly distressed by turmoil so much of which is a local political creation. Yesterday, for example, the Fianna Fáil candidate in the Dublin South by-election spoke on radio about the National Management Assets Agency, Ireland’s ‘bad bank’ being “up and running”. This is the entity that is supposed to stabilise the nation’s zombie banks. Hours later, Michael Somers, the Chief Executive of the National Treasury Management Agency, spoke at the Public Accounts Committee and spoke of his concern about staffing and operational issues relating to NAMA. That is the type of stunted political thinking that inbreeding brings about – an absolute inability not just to see the wood from the trees, but to distinguish between a copse and a field of buttercups!