Showing posts with label Gerry Adams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gerry Adams. Show all posts

Friday, August 14, 2009

Sinn Fein mystery tour to Lisbon departs

eu flag WHY IS it that it that foreign political entities so passionately seek to protect our Irish nation state from the thrall of Europe and the consequences of The Lisbon Treaty? Perhaps because they anticipate that there is a slight chance that the electorate will abandon their own singular sense of long term self-interest and climb aboard a rickety mystery train where the landmarks are ‘good or bad’, ‘black or white’, ‘pretty or ugly’; where prosperity is a UFO and chronic poverty and deprivation are the tribal badges of a what binds them in their eternal, infinite misery.

Last year we endured the histrionics of the Libertas enterprise that was going to wash over us with the cleansing characteristics of a surging Atlantic foam.  Libertas, naturally, sought legitimacy after the No argument prevailed in the first referendum. Their subsequent ambitions were  far-reaching.  They were not just going to conquer Ireland, but all of Europe from a fortress in Tuam, with a new political disposition in the European Parliament. But the Irish electorate as not as green as they are cabbage-looking and by the time local and European Parliament elections took place on 5 June, the time had come for Libertas to grab their Louis Vuitton luggage, board the Titanic, pay their enormous outstanding bills and disappear over the horizon.

Today, Sinn Féin launched its No campaign to save us from what they consider to be the toxic potential of the second Lisbon Treaty referendum on 2 October. They argue that it is ‘an out of date document that is bad for the Irish and European economy’. Don’t you always admire one-dimensional thinking and the old world of ‘black and white’, ‘good and bad’, win or lose’, ‘ma and pa’, ‘Fred and Wilma’, Barney and Beanie’. Imagine – the out of date document is ‘bad’.

How could a recession be used as scare tactic?  Perhaps through some, yet to be identified, by-product of voodoo concocted by a bearded bogyman.  Have you ever associated the leadership of that party with modernity? I reckon the ambition of the Irish electorate in on the prospects of recovery not the type of fossilising isolation endured by citizens of Albania, Myanmar and Zimbabwe

They are concerned by what they see as the ‘singular focus’ of the European Commission on competitiveness. Competitiveness, as a foundation to prosperity is ‘bad’. So what is ‘good’? Apparently a capacity to strategically intervene in the economy is ‘good’, but there is no elaboration of what intervention they have in mind? I guess this is another blind date; an instance of beauty really being in the eye of the beholder and the beholder being afflicted with advanced, untreated glaucoma.

What economic angel dust has Sinn Féin ever sprinkled to even tease the electorate that it is economically literate, that they understand the ambition of electorate or that they are remotely progressive or have the naked coherence to deliver anything of value to the electorate? Their advocacy of wealth creation is rather circumscribed so don’t expect any diversions down highways, byways or back lanes that could result in new jobs, new patents from research, increased international trade, a more vibrant tourist sector, a more sophisticated society, a €15 billion healthcare system that is not dysfunctional, enhanced confidence or a viable vision that is achievable. Perhaps they have become too suffocated with the economic doctrine of Robert Mugabe and his weakness for state intervention.

Their native Northern Ireland has an economy has a chronic dependence on state handouts and state employment but I have never detected a craving that this approach would be admired and desired in our own nation state.  The 30% decline in support for Sinn Féin in Dublin last June would imply that the electorate wishes to idolise some other lateral thinking political demigods for whom insular tribal clamminess is not a prerequisite rather than live in a cave waiting for the rain to stop.  It is simply not adequate to build a campaign on vacuous slogans. An electorate will examine what a political party is capable of achieving and what its accomplishment are.  The posturing of a ‘party of protest’ achieves nothing.  Society needs ‘do-ers’, not wafflers!

The UK Independence Party are also compassionately concerned about our wellbeing and the threat of a totalitarian super-state evolving “by deception, propaganda and outright lies”.  Indeed!  The search for virtue is endless!

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Where to now for Sinn Fein in Dublin?

adams THE President of Sinn Féin, Gerry Adams MP MLA, in a interview with Michael Moriarty Northern Editor of The Irish Times on 8 August stated that regaining lost ground in Dublin “is ultra-important because if you can get a critical active campaigning organisation there you are likely to get more publicity, to get the media exposure and so on”. What’s been happening to Sinn Féin in Dublin?

The 2002 general election was the first since The Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin won 40,450 first preference votes in Dublin and won Dáil seats in Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West and the successful candidate there topped the poll and surpassed a quota. Candidate stood in all 11 Dublin constituencies. Two of these, Larry O’Toole and Dessie Ellis, were established members of Dublin City Council. O’Toole polled 3,003 votes in Dublin North-East to secure fifth place in that 3-seater. Ellis polled 4,781 votes to secure fourth place in the Dublin North-West 3-seater – not a breakthrough on their local council vote.

The party polled 51,943 votes in the 2004 local elections in Dublin and secured 12.2% of all votes cast in the three Dublin local authorities. They performed slightly better north of the Liffey securing a 14.5% share of the vote compared to a 10.5% share south of the Liffey. Top vote getters O’Toole polled 4,497 votes in Artane and Ellis polled 4,300 votes in Finglas. Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Dublin City Council, 3 seats on South Dublin County Council, 1 seat on Fingal County County Council and none on Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council. However, four of their winners, O’Toole, Ellis, Kehoe and Forde surpassed a quota in 2002 but Ellis was the only one to emulate this in 2004.

The 2004 European Parliament Election enticed a higher turnout in Dublin than in 1999. The valid poll increased from 286,684 votes to 421,897 votes. Mary Lou McDonald polled 60,395 votes and won the fourth of four seats. When McDonald stood as a candidate in Dublin West in the 2002 general election she polled 2,404 votes. She stood as a candidate in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election and polled 3,182 votes.

The 2007 general election resulted in a significant shrinkage in support for Sinn Féin. The party won 35,256 votes in the 11 Dublin constituencies – representing a 7% share of the Dublin vote and 16,687 fewer than in the previous general election. They secured just one Dáil seat that of Aengus Ó’Snodaigh in Dublin South-Central. He won the fifth seat with 4,825 votes, 776 fewer than in 2002. The vote of the star performed in 2002, Seán Crowe plummeted to 5,066. They lost ground in 9 of the 11 constituencies and particularly so in Dublin South-West (-8.1%), Dublin Central (-5.4%) and Dublin West (-3.2%). The extent of the overall downturn was consistent, north and south of the Liffey.

There was a further contraction in support in the 2009 local elections. A total of 36,241 votes were won in the three Dublin local authority areas compared to 51,953 votes in the previous local election – a 30% reversal in voter support.

Larry O’Toole’s star waned when he polled just 2,702 votes in Artane, just shy of a quota. Dessie Ellis also took a hit at the polls in Finglas when he won 3,263 votes compared to the 4,300 he won in 2004. They have five seats on Dublin City Council and would have had five if Councillor Christy Burke had not abandoned his 25-year stint as a Sinn Féin councillor and Councillor Louise Minihan had not opted to become an Independent on the grounds that she “no longer supports or believes in the party”.  While they had a winner in Cabra-Glasnevin in 2009, possibly as a consequence of the electoral travails of ‘the brudder’, Maurice Ahern, their vote in this area was down by 12.5%.  The endured a similar haircut in South-East Inner City and in Tallaght-Central, although Sean Crowe won a seat on the 9th count.

Mary Lou McDonald lost her bid to secure one of the 3 seats in the Dublin European Parliament election. Her vote dropped to 47,928 despite her elevation to the role of Vice President.

Summary of Sinn Votes in Dublin

 

1st Preference Votes

2002 – General Election

40,450

2004 - Local Election

51,943

2004 – European Parliament Election

47,928

2007 – General Election

35,356

2009 – Local Election

36,241

2009 – European Parliament Election

47,928

Dublin by-elections

The two Dublin by-elections in 2009 did not any relief to the prevailing trend. While Councillor Christy Burke picked up 588 more votes than Mary Lou McDonald did in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election that compares to the 138 votes lost in the Dublin South by-election.

Floating Vote, general elections.

The floating vote in each of these elections caries quite significantly from one to another.

The floating vote between the two general elections as 13.4%. An extra 17,842 voters turned out in 2007 and 43,414 who voted in 2004 changed their vote in 2007.

The floating vote between the two sets of local elections was 85,357 – 20.1%. The losers were Fianna Fáil (30,490), Greens (13,871), Sinn Féin (15,702), Progressive Democrats – now obsolete (24,631), Socialists (663) and a lower turnout of 17,037 voters. Those who gained were Fine Gael (20,151) and Labour (27,157)

The floating vote between the two Euro elections was 16.3% in Dublin. The turnout was lower by 15,257 and the losers were Fianna Fáil (23,648), Labour (11,580), Sinn Féin (12,467) and Greens (21,359).

 

Vote transfer patterns, general elections

  2002 2007
North of the Liffey    
Received 3,003 2,410
Gave 10,857 12,145
South of the Liffey    
Received 3,831 3,708
Gave 11,974 9,233

 

 

This is a function of when a candidate is eliminated but the message is that there are relatively few votes being transferred to Sinn Féin. 

 

Mr Adams refers to future ambitions in the context of they being ‘a long haul’. I wonder do the electorate in the State have the same attitude to Sinn Féin as the electorate in Northern Ireland have to candidates sponsored by the Tories and the Labour Party.

ferris There is much soul searching to be done and I reckon that the electorate need more to stimulate them than the sight of Martin Ferris TD greeting and facilitating two convicts on their release from Castlerea Prison at the conclusion of their sentence for killing Garda Jerry McCabe on duty.