Political parties scarred by presidential election

Summer time ends in Ireland At 2.00 AM tomorrow morning and I will be en route to Moscow at 5.45 AM, an jour earlier than usual.  But the dark winter evenings should provide Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with ample time to reflect on the presidential election results.

Fianna Fáil, battered by the general election, did not even contest the election and the party lost the only Dáil seat it held in Dublin in the by-election following the death of the Brian Lenihan.

However, Seán Gallagher, a political novice, who maintained that he was an Independent candidate and having consistently shown a 40% rating in the polls, saw his prospects collapse when it became clear that he was a fund raiser for Fianna Fáil but was not always entirely certain what the source of the funds raised was.

When he mentioned that ‘I may have picked up an envelope’ he sent a shudder through Irish society which reminded them of the venal record of Fianna Fáil and the fact that not all funds raised actually reached their intended target. Despite all of that Gallagher won 504,964 first preference votes which represented a 12% dip on his polling trend.

Fine Gael, now in Government, chose a candidate, Gay Mitchell, who garnered only 113,321 first preference votes – 6.4% of the poll while the party itself is trending in the mid thirties.  This was a diabolical result notwithstanding that one member of the party aristocracy, Leo Varadker, stated that “Gay Mitchell was a good candidate” and another blue blood, Phil Hogan stated that the outcome ‘was not a disaster for the Party’.  What defines a disaster for Hogan? A capacity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  They insulted the electorate by choosing a non-viable candidate and then abandoning him.  The electorate will not forget that!

Mary Banotti contested the last presidential election in 1997 for Fine Gael and secured 372,002 first preference votes – 29.2% of the poll .

The Fine Gael candidate in the 1990 presidential election was Austin Currie.  He secured 267,902 first preference votes – 17% of the poll.

The drama queen, Dana Rosemary Scallon, won 51,220 first preference votes in this week’s election and this compares to 175,458 first preference votes when she inflicted herself on the electorate in the last presidential election in 1997.

The Irish presidential election is becoming chaotic, desultory, pathetic farce!

Gay Mitchell is telling us that how reluctant he is to smile but that his priorities are combatting suicide and child mortality in the third world? The people of Ireland are looking for a head of state, not a drag-queen resembling Mary Magdalene parading his vanity around the globe attaching himself to issues that are beyond the scope of the mandate of the President of Ireland.  If Mitchell wants to become a missionary he needs to pursue a different path.

Is this guy really telling the Irish public that his capacity for public office is so limited and constrained that he cannot even manage to smile at them? If Mitchell performs as chaotically in this election as he is in the campaign that outcome will inflict greater damage on the party that sponsored him than it will on the candidate. What considerations entered the calculus of the Fine Gael party in July when they were choosing a candidate for the presidential election?

The vacuous, evangelical, bullshit that has been proffered about the ‘suitability’ of McGuinness without any concurrent description of what makes Gay Mitchell a compelling candidate for presidential office must bear its own message – and that, too, must be something that does not evoke a smile.

Perhaps it is better for the electorate realise before the election, rather than afterwards, that the disposition of a prospective president to smile graciously is a potential stumbling block to his capacity to relate to them as President. Mr Mitchell there is some substance in the adage – ‘smile and the world smiles with you; scowl and you scowl alone’.

The presidential election campaign by all candidates is degenerating into a pathetic and desultory chaotic farce being acted out by a posse of candidates no more qualified to be head of state that a random selection of hassled commuters at a bus stop in rush hour.

Do these people consider the electorate to be gullible buffoons as they narrate their inane stream of consciousness that is supposed to pass as a compelling case to elect them President of Ireland? The esteem of the nation is at stake and the people deserves better.

A mandate to become President of Ireland or a camouflage for congenital laziness and inertia?

The Irish people are about to be asked to make a 7-year commitment on the 27th October when they choose they next President.  They are entitled to be provided with an intelligent insight into the qualities, qualifications and limitations of the panel of candidates and how each of them intends to conduct that office. 

The Irish Times in its edition of 3^rd October has given the candidates in the Irish presidential election a platform to set out their stall under the banner ‘Why I should be President’. Each of them manages to convey absolutely nothing to answer this question.

Mary Davis wants ‘to make a contribution to Ireland’s recovery; restoration of pride at home and reputation across the world’. She does not indicate how she intends to accomplish this. But, like an observer on the upper deck of a double-deck bus she has seen others overcome adversity. As a member of the Council of State she has observed the protection of the Constitution. She advises that “the presidency is about ‘influence’ – using your voice as president to speak for all the people of Ireland, especially those for whom Ireland has not been a welcoming place; about using the office to promote fairness, equality and respect for every person in the country and playing a more expansive international role”.  How has this candidate obtained influence and used it throughout her career?

To whom will her voice be directed to achieve these desirable objectives? What is fairness? How can a President inculcate respect for every person? Where will the more expansive international role be conducted and who on the international will make a difference? She doesn’t indicate which languages she is proficient in so as to expand the international footprint.  The electorate need to understand the precise scope and nature of the intended contribution.

Sean Gallagher wants to put enterprise at the heart of the next presidency. How will his concept of enterprise be juxtaposed with the dynamics of a free marketplace? He wants to become involved in trade missions. Where would he travel to and who would he meet? What would he say when met the target audience? How would he select his targets?

But it is not the function of the President of Ireland to lead trade missions. Dialogue with business people is a components of a President’s international mandate but the responsibility for execution and delivery rests with a Government minister. Gallagher fails to indicate an understanding of the function. Other people are paid handsomely to accomplish what he thinks he could achieve. The nation needs an inspiring statesman in the role of President, not a technician with modest accomplishments.

Michael D Higgins wants inclusive citizenship in a creative society. He does not elaborate on what barriers need to be removed to progress this and how he, as President, can remove them. What is inclusive citizenship? How might I feel if I were included in this process? He is almost 70 years old. Will his health and stamina be robust enough to be an effective President?

David Norris continues to wander around his own personal hall of fame. He wants to put the welfare of people at the centre of political culture. Is that not a role for the leaders of political parties? He believes the role of President needs to be reinvented so that the image of Ireland evokes a smile but fails to elucidate in what direction he would reinvent it.

Gay Mitchell is concerned about the number of suicides and elsewhere I read that he is proposing that the Irish President should become joint head of state in Northern Ireland. Mitchell has been in politics for decades. Why has he had no influence on suicide trends and what exactly does he believe the President can do about this trend? The election is being fought on the basis of the Constitution. How does he propose to effect his proposal with respect to Northern Ireland? Perhaps he might emulate President Obama if he were to seek to also become the joint President of Russia. Credibility rather than hallucinogenic thinking might offer more grounded leadership.

Martin McGuinness wants to construct a new republic in which he would be President of people in the 32 counties of Ireland – whether they want this or not. He wants to make employment the cornerstone of his presidency – but in which part of his kingdom will the jobs become available and who will be the employers? He wants to overhaul what he describes as the archaic mode of selecting candidates but he does not elaborate on what the nature of his implied change might be.  How will he deal with conflicts of interest between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?

Dana presents herself as an entertainer and a business woman. We know she sings hymns but the electorate has no idea as to what her business experience is or how successful she has been in this field. She wants to be an ardent protector of the Constitution. Her presidency will be a catalyst to overcome intolerance and eliminate barriers. How does she intend to do that?

If each of these candidates were to set out what accomplishments they aim to achieve in the second year of the 7-year term the electorate might have some idea as to where their compass is pitched. These vignettes lack candour, conviction or credibility. But this opinion piece is merely a trawl of a stream of consciousness that contains no analysis; an unfocused immature internal monologue. The tragedy is that this pathetic posturing could shroud the egotistical ambitions of lazy, incompetent people unfit for the role of head of state who would become a massive reputational time bomb as President of Ireland.

Gay Mitchell’s Áras campaign must be in lamentable trouble

Under a front page headline ‘Phil Hogan warns No terrorist in the Áras’ today’s edition of The Sunday Independent report today that Ireland would be left looking like a banana republic and denuded of serious levels of corporate investment within 24 months’ if Martin McGuinness is elected President. Not one syllable of explanation is reported as to how Gay Mitchell, the Fine Gael candidate is ‘suitable’ in Hogan’s opinion.

Does this suggest that those sponsoring corporate investment in Ireland are likely to reject the democratic mandate of the Irish people as Hogan warns us of their jackboot influence?

The implication of the Phil Hogan remark would therefore presumably mean that Northern Ireland is a dead duck as far as its economic development is concerned because a terrorist has become a Government leader and business decision makers might ‘whisper’ that they are ‘appalled’. That fragile economy, which already has an overweening dependency on State intervention and money, will therefore never achieve the vitality, independence and prosperity that can only be derived from the private sector if that is the case.

The Fine Gael party has responded to the Mitchell nomination with the sense of excitement, shock and awe more typically associated with a monastery of Trappist monks’ or an enclosed order of nuns.

Gay Mitchell was chosen 83 days ago as the Fine Gael candidate but he is badly trailing the popularity of his own party in the opinion polls. Why are the plain people of Ireland not recognising his ‘suitability’ to become the next President and reflecting in the polls? Why is Mitchell not colonising the public imagination with excitement and exhilaration at the prospect of him becoming President? Poll ratings of 10% in favour and 90% not in favour of his candidacy are not trends that inspire confidence in a public that is about to make a 7-year commitment in choosing of candidate to become our President.

If Ireland is threatened with being associated with the reputation of a banana republic the source of this lies with unprosecuted bankers rather than with presidential candidates. If the Fine Gael Party do not demonstrate even mild conviction that Mitchell is a desirable candidate how can they expect the electorate to respond otherwise? Mr Hogan, your starting point is to say something, anything positive about the candidacy of Mr Mitchell before treating the electorate as if they are undiscriminating buffoons. 

Mr Hogan, if Fine Gael have chosen a dud candidate for this election that is their problem and that is a reflection of their judgement – not the judgement of the electorate.

Fine Gael to select candidate to contest Áras 2011

Fine Gael will select a candidate to contest the Presidential Election today from among Gay Mitchell, Pat Cox and Mairead McGuinness.  Two of them are Members of the European Parliament and Cox is a former Member and former President of the Parliament.

If one, or more, of these candidates had established sufficient credibility with the electorate they would be entering this selection process radiating a more intense sense of conviction rather than an ambiguous aura of compunction.

None of them have communicated directly with the voters. None of them have described to the electorate their credentials to become Head of State. There is an enormous difference between the skill-set of a European parliamentarian and those of a successful, inspiring President. The qualities that make one competent in one role do not seamlessly transfer to Áras an Uachtaráin. Therefore, as far as this Office is concerned – all of them are strangers with inadequate recognition throughout the country. Opinion polling data about strangers is nonsensical, whatever trend it attempts to portray.

There appeared to be widespread sentiment in Fianna Fáil at the end of the Bertie Ahern’s tenure as Fianna Fáil Leader and Taoiseach that the obvious and only candidate to succeed him was Brian Cowen – based on Cowen’s sound-bites in the course of the 2007 general election and a perception that he had what was necessary to be a strong leader and to pick a competent cabinet. The 2011 general election gave the electorate’s verdict. The voters will be cautious about the sentiment of any political party having been so badly let down by that experience.

The electorate want the next President to be no ordinary, taciturn Joe or Jane Soap. They want an articulate, sophisticated and nuanced President who will defend the Constitution; defend the dignity of our nation and be imbued with a sense of its potential. They want a President with the capacity to promote and reflect the prestige of Ireland across the globe. They want a President who, at one level, has the authenticity to convey the nation’s grief to those afflicted with appalling personal tragedy and, at another level, to inspire an audience of sceptical foreign strangers in faraway places that Ireland is awesome. They want a President who radiates the spirit of Ireland.

Who is electable to conduct such a mandate?

Dublin European Parliament Election Postscript

Now that the dust has settled it is interesting to reflect who were the ‘king-makers’ in the Dublin European Parliament election on 5 June by comparing the vote transfers in 2009 with those of the previous Euro election on 11 June 2004

Electorate

The electorate in 2009 at 812,465, was slightly less than in 2004.  The total valid poll was lower at 406,630 compared to 421,897 in 2004.  As there were only 3 seats to be filled in 2009 the quota was higher at 101,658 compared to 84,380 last time.

Fianna Fail

The outgoing MEP, Eoin Ryan polled 55,346 in 2009, slightly less than the 61,681 he polled in 2004.  But his running mate this time, former Lord Mayor of Dublin, Eibhlin Byrne polled over 17,300 few votes than Ryan’s running mate last time, Royston Brady.  He never recovered ground and his widely predicted defeat materialised. Byrne was an excellent and gracious Lord Mayor but the tide against Fianna Fail was overwhelming.

Fine Gael

Gay Mitchell polled 96,715 votes this time and this was a real boost for Fine Gael in Dublin whose electoral efforts in the capital did not surpass 90,000 votes in the last several elections.  When he achieved quota on Count 4, half of Mitchell’s surplus of 2,755 votes went to Proinsias De Rossa but over 20% went to Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail.

Labour

De Rossa’s polled a very credible 83,471 votes as a solo candidate.  He had a running mate in 2004, Ivana Bacik, who polled over 40,000 votes.

Green Party

Deirdre de Burca polled 19,086 votes, less than half the 40,000 votes the Greens have polled in greater Dublin in the past several elections.  Former Green Party MEP, Patricia McKenna, polled 17,521 votes in 2009, less than half of what she achieved as a Green Party candidate.  However, she stayed in the race longer than de Burca, having achieved over 4,000 second preferences from Simons, the Libertas candidate and 2,833 from de Burca.  Approximately 18% of deBurca’s second preferences went to Fianna Fail but only 9.6% of Fianna Fail transfers went to The Green Party

Sinn Fein

The votes were simply not there this time for Mary Lou McDonald,  She polled an exceptional 60,395 first preference votes in 2004 but this time she just polled 47,928 and never caught up. She got over 2,100 second preferences from de Burca and over 2,700 from McKenna.

Socialist Party

The sun and moon were perfectly aligned this time for Joe Higgins who won 0ver 50,000 first preferences in 2009 compared to the 23,218 he polled in 2004. He obtained a steady amount of second preference from the Independents and McKenna which helped put a margin of 2,800 votes between himself and McDonald when she dropped out at Count 6.  Higgins collected over 27,000 of her second preferences which meant that he was in the winners enclosure.

Dublin Euro election campaign picks up pace.

There are 32 days remaining to the Euro election on June 5th. Opinion polls are beginning to reflect the sentiment of a changing mood among the electorate. There are 9 candidates in contention, the latest being Patricia McKenna the former MEP and Green Party member.


The Redc national poll on 23 April asked:

if there was a European election tomorrow, which party, or independent
candidate, would you vote for?

The result was charted against the national outcome in the 2004 Euro poll and the findings were:


2004 Euro Poll -- Voting Intentions, Apr 2009

Fianna Fáil 29%, 25%
Fine Gael 28% , 32%
Labour 11% , 17%
Sinn Féin 11%, 8%
Greens 4%, 7%
Libertas 0%, 2%
Others 17%, 10%

The Red C 2009 figures actually add to 101% - presumably allowing for statistical rounding.


If the Redc poll national trend on Euro voting intentions was to be applied to Dublin and the opinion swing nationally was to impact in a similar pattern in Dublin an interesting pattern evolves. The quota next month will be 25% of the valid poll because there are just 3 seats instead of the current 4. If the valid poll next month is similar to the valid poll in 2004 there will be about 420,000 votes and a quota of the order of 105,000, an increase of 21,000 over the last Euro election. The following pattern might emerge:


Fianna Fáil


The incumbent MEP, Eoin Ryan and his running mate, Royston Brady, polled 97,750 votes in 2004. The corresponding figure this time maybe closer to 84,000, but will the party pick up sufficient transfers to bridge the gap? Fianna Fáil voters don’t normally transfer to other parties and there might be difficulties for them in securing transfers.



Fine Gael


Gay Mitchell, the sole FG candidate and outgoing MEP, won 90,749 votes in 2004. The opinion polls would suggest that Mitchell, again the sole candidate, could make quota. This would be a formidable accomplishment given the fragmented impact of Fine Gael in Dublin and the absence of Dáil representation in three Dublin Dáil constituencies.



Labour


Labour and the parties that lean towards Labour have polled will in each of the European elections since 1979. deRossa is the sole candidate this time. His running mate, Ivana Bacik, polled 40,707 votes in 2004 eclipsing the incumbent Green MEP, Patricia McKenna. While deRossa is not a familiar figure in many parts of the Dublin constituency, especially in the south-side, the surge in Labour popularity could see him comfortably make quota and become the catalyst in deciding the 3rd seat.



Greens


The Greens are enjoying favourable polls, having won 4% in 2004 and picking up support in 2009 may lay the ground for them to win over 50,000 votes if there candidate, Déirdre de Búrca makes sufficient impact.



Sinn Féin


The 11% of the poll won in 2004 is morphing into 8% national support in the Red C poll. McDonald won 60,395 votes in 2004 which was quite a feat at that time. But the weak performance in the 2007 General Election imply a trend of waning support and current poll trends would imply that next month’s election will yield 40,000+ votes – perhaps in the mid 40’s. If the mood of the electorate becomes more favourably disposed towards The Lisbon Treaty, as Redc poll suggest, this would put McDonald on the losing side and the incumbent MEP to disappear.


Libertas


If they win 2% of the vote in Dublin as the national opinion poll implies that would be equivalent to about 8,500 votes. Their candidate has no profile whatsoever and over the past 20 years the Dublin electorate has been slow to embrace strangers!


Socialist


Joe Higgins polled over 23,000 votes in 2004. He and his running mates polled 11,500 votes in the 2007 General Election. He lost his Dail seat in 2007. As a TD and leader of a parliamentary party he recevied an annual allowance of €64,210 in 2006 but this was reduced to €22,408 in 2007. It is expensive to fund an election campaign and the absence of this allowance will not make it easier.

Others

The former MEP, Patricia McKenna, has announced her intention to run as an independent candidate. Formerly a member of the Green Party, she lent her shrill and strident voice to the No campaign when The Lisbon Treaty was held last year. She was beaten in the 2004 Euro election by Mary Lou McDonald despite securing 40,000 votes after two terms in Europe and would seem intent on at least being a spoiler of McDonald's chances this time. "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"! Her emergence may cajole to current Green Party candidate, deBurca, to come out of hiding and make an impression on the voters before it is too late.

Non-aligned candidates polled 6,200 votes in the 2004 election. There are no such candidates in this election. The field of 8 candidates is the smallest since direct Euro elections were inaugurated in 1979. The Progressive Democrats no longer exist. They did not field a candidate in 2004 so their legacy support base will find expression and is likely to scatter across the established parties with Fine Gael and Greens probably being the main beneficiaries.