Big Phil’s mighty ambition for women in Irish politics

Environment Minister ‘Big Phil’ Hogan wants more women TDs.  As his Electoral (Amendment)(Political Funding Bill 2011 winds its way through the Oireachtas, ‘Big Phil’ envisages that 30% of the candidates selected to contest the next general election un Ireland by the political parties who obtain State funding (Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin) will have to be females.  That pot of gold is worth €27.28 million over the next five years.  Failure to comply will eliminate the party concerned from any State funding throughout the life of the 32nd Dáil which must take office by February 2015.

The population of Ireland is forecast to increase to 5.69 million by 2026, a mere 14 years ahead. Currently, each TD represents, on average 26,873 voters.  If this ratio were to maintained the Dáil would comprise 211 TD’s in 2026 and Big Phil envisages that 30%, or 63 of them would be women.  This will mean that up to 250 female candidates will have to contest the general election that creates the 34th Dáil.

As the table below shows, ten constituencies account for 45% of the total votes cast for women in 2011 and for 12 of the 25 female TDs.

A female candidate had a 2/1 chance of being elected in Dublin in the 2011 general election but the chances of a female candidate succeeding in the Border, Midland & West Region, or the Mid-West was significantly less. 

There are currently 25 females TDs (15%) among the 166 that populate the 31st Dáil.  There were 85 female candidates (15%) among the 566 that contested the 2011 general election.  These garnered 335,532 (15%) of the total poll of 2,230,359 votes cast.  Three constituencies, Cork South-West, Kildare South and Limerick did not field a single female candidate.  The following is the voting record of women candidates’ in 2011 when women achieved 20%, or more of the votes cast.  Interestingly, the female vote in Galway W was 22% – but not enough to win a seat, while five female TDs won seats with significantly less than a quota.

The 25 female TDs won 178,975 first preference votes – 53% of all votes cast for women.  They spent €354.333 on their campaigns – equivalent to an average of €1.98 per vote

The State has provided taxpayers’ funding of over €90million to political parties in the decade to 2010 – but less than €900,000 was spent on promoting the cause of women in elected politics.  A massive cultural change will be necessary to achieve Big Phil’s dream if it is not to descend to the farce that has befallen the Household Charge and the Septic Tank Charge.

 

Constituency	Total Votes	Female TDs / Female Candidates’ Votes	Female Votes % Total Votes
Carlow-Kilkenny	73,743	(1) 18,647	25%
Cavan-Monaghan	71,275	(1) 21,253	30%
Clare	57,916	1,099	2%
Cork E	56,933	(1) 6,802	12%
Cork NC	52,137	(1) 7,676	15%
Cork NW	45,740	(1) 9,436	21%
Cork SC	64,040	9,038	14%
Cork SW	45,658	0	0
Donegal NE	37,918	1,150	3%
Donegal SW	43,263	5,211	12%
Dublin C	34,612	(2) 15,583	45%
Dublin MW	42,722	(2) 14,776	35%
Dublin N	49,347	(1) 7,513	15%
Dublin NC	38,774	2,641	7%
Dublin NE	41,839	4,794	11%
Dublin NW	32,811	(1) 9,359	29%
Dublin S	72,646	(1) 19,948	27%
Dublin SC	50,927	(2) 12,178	24%
Dublin SE	34,919	(1) 7,248	21%
Dublin SW	45,964	3,678	8%
Dublin W	42,472	(1) 9,627	23%
Dun Laoghaire	56,676	(1) 19,926	35%
Galway E	59,276	7,755	13%
Galway W	60,625	13,418	22%
Kerry N- W Limerick	45,614	2,161	5%
Kerry S	44,380	5,327	12%
Kildare N	51,222	(1) 11,688	23%
Kildare S	38,270	0	0
Laois-Offaly	74,158	(1) 5,817	8%
Limerick	45,041	0	0
Limerick City	43,188	(1) 6,843	16%
Longford-W’meath	57,525	(1) 3,555	7%
Louth	69,319	4,546	7%
Mayo	74,154	(1)17,215	23%
Meath E	42,752	(1) 9,845	23%
Meath W	40,178	9,809	24%
Roscommon-S Leitrim	47,504	0	0
Sligo-N Leitrim	44,428	5,672	13%
Tipperary N	48,273	8,709	18%
Tipperary S	41,361	4,525	11%
Waterford	53,720	(1) 5,554	10%
Wexford	75,539	175	0%
Wicklow	70,500	(1) 5,436	8%
TDs, ranked by votes	Votes	Party	Spend/Vote
Mitchell, O	9,635	FG	€1.59
Burton, J	9,627	Lab	€2.27
Shorthall, R	9,359	Lab	€1.17
Mitchell-O’Connor, M	9,087	FG	€1.91
Mulherin, M	8,851	FG	€1.67
Doherty, R	8,677	FG	€1.73
Humphreys, H	8,144	FG	€1.32
Phelan, A	8,072	Lab	€2.55
Lynch, K	7,896	Lab	€1.94
Collins, A	7,884	FG	€1.50
Daly, C	7,513	S	€0.85
Tuffy, J	7,495	Lab	€1.92
Fitzgerald, F	7,281	FG	€2.11
Murphy, C	6,911	Ind	€2.61
Creighton, L	6,619	FG	€2.61
Collins, J	6,574	PBPA	€1.64
O’Sullivan, J	6.353	Lab	€2.47
McLellan, S	6,292	SF	€1.44
McFadden, N	6,129	FG	€1.66
Corcoran-Kennedy, M	5,817	FG	€2.62
Byrne, C	5,604	FG	€1.82
Conway, C	5,554	Lab	€2.30
Ferris, A	5,436	Lab	€2.67
McDonald, ML	4,526	SF	€4.52
O’Sullivan, M	4,139	Ind	€2.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Political parties scarred by presidential election

Summer time ends in Ireland At 2.00 AM tomorrow morning and I will be en route to Moscow at 5.45 AM, an jour earlier than usual.  But the dark winter evenings should provide Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with ample time to reflect on the presidential election results.

Fianna Fáil, battered by the general election, did not even contest the election and the party lost the only Dáil seat it held in Dublin in the by-election following the death of the Brian Lenihan.

However, Seán Gallagher, a political novice, who maintained that he was an Independent candidate and having consistently shown a 40% rating in the polls, saw his prospects collapse when it became clear that he was a fund raiser for Fianna Fáil but was not always entirely certain what the source of the funds raised was.

When he mentioned that ‘I may have picked up an envelope’ he sent a shudder through Irish society which reminded them of the venal record of Fianna Fáil and the fact that not all funds raised actually reached their intended target. Despite all of that Gallagher won 504,964 first preference votes which represented a 12% dip on his polling trend.

Fine Gael, now in Government, chose a candidate, Gay Mitchell, who garnered only 113,321 first preference votes – 6.4% of the poll while the party itself is trending in the mid thirties.  This was a diabolical result notwithstanding that one member of the party aristocracy, Leo Varadker, stated that “Gay Mitchell was a good candidate” and another blue blood, Phil Hogan stated that the outcome ‘was not a disaster for the Party’.  What defines a disaster for Hogan? A capacity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  They insulted the electorate by choosing a non-viable candidate and then abandoning him.  The electorate will not forget that!

Mary Banotti contested the last presidential election in 1997 for Fine Gael and secured 372,002 first preference votes – 29.2% of the poll .

The Fine Gael candidate in the 1990 presidential election was Austin Currie.  He secured 267,902 first preference votes – 17% of the poll.

The drama queen, Dana Rosemary Scallon, won 51,220 first preference votes in this week’s election and this compares to 175,458 first preference votes when she inflicted herself on the electorate in the last presidential election in 1997.

Opinion poll heralds seismic shift in Irish presidential election campaign

The latest MRBI poll results in The Irish Times are not surprising but there are 21 days campaigning days left and much can change to influence the outcome.

People are deeply and passionately interested in who is the head of state because that person becomes the bearer of a part of the ego of each and every citizen that defines our nation. The public want to know who these candidates really are and not to be merely presented with a sanitized caricature of who the candidates would like the public to perceive them to be wrapped in an enigma that is no more than a stream of vacuous consciousness of the candidate’s concept of utopia.

Michael D Higgins is the only one of the 7 that passed the biographical-details test and who introduced himself and his wife to the wider public via the Miriam Meets programme on RTE 1 Radio when he disclosed some personal minutiae about both of them.

The public also need to have some robust conviction what the election of any candidate is likely to signal about Ireland to the wider world and what impact that candidate will have on the presidential office – especially the capacity to safeguard the dignity of the office and the nation. The president is the mirror of the nation.

The potential implications of these poll trends are considerable. Fianna Fáil has demonstrated that it is so marginalised and reviled that it could not even put forward a candidate from the mainstream of Irish society to begin to inspire public confidence.

The Fine Gael party has some grounds for the deepest introspective reflection and soul-searching if their best offer to the Irish public is a candidate who is trailing second last seven – 35 points lower than the party itself. Enda Kenny has won the trust of the public and presents as a Taoiseach comfortable in that role.

I have seen first-hand in locations far away from Erin’s shore over the past 10 days that he and Eamon Gilmore have managed to salvage the credibility and stature of the country because Ireland is seen overseas as being led by a competent, stable and responsible government by power brokers whose vigilant gimlet eye defines sentiment.

Sinn Féin must think beyond the boundaries of their traditional narrow, conservative regional enclave if they are to make the stunning breakthrough they believe to be their right. They need turn up for the work they are handsomely paid to do in Westminster and scrutinise the legislation that is impacting the lives of tens of thousands of citizens in the single-seat parliamentary constituencies that they were elected to represent. Laggards in any walk of life are ultimately a useless, irrelevant carbuncle on the arse of spineless society. If Sinn Féin is to be acknowledged as a serious party of national leadership then it is time to start leading, not posturing as neighbourhood activists and playing to the whims of a narrow gallery .

Fianna Fáil could be the real kingmaker in the Irish presidential election

Now that the sluice gate of opportunity has been perceived by Dana Rosemary Scallon to have opened following the exit of David Norris the real king maker could be Micheál Martin.  The presidential election will be the first real test of his leadership of in the eyes of the nation - beyond the boundaries of Fianna Fáil. That said, I don’t think that a member of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party could be a successful presidential candidate this time for self-evident reasons.

But Fianna Fáil was able in 1997 to attract a distinguished candidate from beyond its own mainstream who was to become a genuine, world class statesman; who became a unifying, consistently progressive force in the country for not one, but two terms; who dreamt of building bridges and did so with astounding tact, tenacity, imagination, diligence and success. Fianna Fáil’s offering to the nation in 1997 was inaugurated one week after President Obama won his first-ever election to political office and she will leave office in 2011 with a level of goodwill and esteem that is, at best, a fantasy for the world’s major leaders and statesmen.

That candidate thoroughly understood what the role of Head of State entails – its scope and limitations. That disciplined candidate safeguarded the Constitution and scrupulously protected the dignity of the Office and of the nation. That visionary candidate understood the concept of prestige and enhancing the reputation of Ireland. That reflective and mature candidate radiated values that resonated with voters’. This chosen candidate was authentic and credible; that’s why she won the election and then won the heart of the nation.

The reputation of this nation had a very close shave with reputational Armageddon this week, three months before the presidential election. The image on the world’s television screens of an Irish President declaring his abrupt resignation on the steps of the Áras and describing his love of a rapist has been averted. The risk that the equivalent of the Lincoln Bedroom at the presidential mansion could be accommodating a personal guest of the President who would attract lurid tabloid journalism comment and speculation has been mitigated. The prospect of a convicted child rapist being the second person, as consort of the President, to formally greet foreign dignitaries when they arrive here on State visits will not arise.

Those who have expressed an interest in contesting this election are not really endowed with the presidential stature that we have become accustomed to. The nation therefore needs a determined input and intervention to insure that this contest provides the electorate with the opportunity to elect a statesman of calibre – an individual who is the best Irish person of this generation and whose credentials to become President are inspiring and compelling.

The electorate should not be reduced to a choice of candidates from among the minor aristocracy of domestic reality TV, from the faded grandees of the Eurovision Song Contest when President de Valera was in office, an anonymous  stranger who has yet to offer a single compelling statement to justify consideration and a pair of jaded duds with a faded political legacy whose appeal is likely, at best, to be only to their most loyal and long-standing following. That escapade would end in a puddle of tears and a nation diminished in the eyes of observers. We have been through enough of that.

If Fianna Fáil can produce a credible candidate with potential universal appeal that personal achievement could become a defining moment, the catalyst for Martin to prove his leadership credentials to those who are apolitical but patriotic. That accomplishment could confirm the character of Martin’s leadership. It would be an act of real patriotism.

Lacey banned by High Court for 9 years

The High Court yesterday (7 June 2011) disqualified Jim Lacey (61) of Grove Avenue, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, the former chief executive of National Irish Bank from 1988 to 1994 and former Fianna Fáil party insider , from serving as a director or officer of any company for 9 years on grounds of unfitness.

The court found that Lacey had been grossly negligent and that his conduct constituted a fundamental failure of governance. Lacey remained as a non-executive director of NIB from 1994 to 1997.  He had not acted on internal audit findings that had been brought to his attention.

He is the 10^th former executive of NIB to be banned and cases are outstanding against a further six. 

The extent of his unfitness was described in adverse findings of the High Court Inspectors Report on NIB which was published on 30 July 2004. The Report covered the period 1988 to 1998 when NIB was owned by National Australia Bank and, following an expose by two RTE journalists - not by the Central Bank.

The High Court appointed the Inspectors on Monday, 30 March 1998 to investigate:

• Bogus non-resident accounts and fictitiously named accounts were opened and maintained, allowing customers to evade tax.
  
• Clerical Medical Insurance policies were promoted as secure investment for funds not disclosed to the Revenue Commissioners. The total value of polices sold was around £48m and about 40pc of these exceeded £100,000.
  
• Special Savings Accounts had DIRT deducted at a reduced rate.
  
• Improper charging of both interest and fees to customers.  Over 6,500 NIB customers were reimbursed in 2001 for overcharging that was applied to their personal loan accounts in 1997, 1998 and 2000.

The Revenue Commissioners, as of 31 December 2010, have collected €60.14 million involving 312 cases of tax evasion as a consequence of special investigations following the NIB debacle.

Lacey resigned his two State appointments to the board of the Irish Aviation Authority and Dublin Docklands Development Authority as well as his position as a fundraiser for Fianna Fáil on Friday, 27 March 1998 “for personal reasons that should not be interpreted in any way as implying any impropriety by me in my previous role with NIB”

Lacey had been a close adviser to Bertie Ahern and had been appointed to Forum 2000, the Fianna Fail fundraising vehicle. Former Environment Minister Noel Demspey, who appointed Lacey to the DDDA in 1997 ‘accepted his resignation with regret’

When the High Court Inspectors Report was published the Head of the Financial Regulator, Liam O’Reilly – until last month a director of Irish Life & Permanent Plc. and member its Risk & Compliance Committee, stated on 30 July 2004 “The type of activity described in the High Court Inspectors’ Report is utterly unacceptable. As a regulator with a strong consumer mandate we are absolutely determined to ensure that there is no place for this type of activity in the financial services industry of today.

In light of this and other recent charging issues that have emerged, the Financial Regulator is currently engaged in an industry-wide exercise focusing on appropriate systems and controls to ensure that all credit institutions are fully in compliance with all relevant laws and requirements. The Financial Regulator is also of the view that in considering how to deal with regulatory issues, financial institutions must consider factors outside their specific legal and regulatory obligations. In particular, financial institutions should seriously consider their responsibility to maintain the trust and confidence of their customers. There is a clear message coming through - financial institutions that put short-term profits before customers will suffer the consequences. The cost of engaging in unacceptable behaviour has been proven to be very high, in both financial and reputational terms”

Mr. Justice Peter Kelly after disqualifying another former executive of NIB, Nigel D’Arcy, for 9 years stated in 2005 that "The edifice of banking is built on a foundation of trust. On the Inspectors findings there was a breach of trust. The operation was carried out over a period of years in a deliberate fashion"

Following the Lacey judgement, Paul Appleby Director of Corporate Enforcement stated  “The NIB/NIBFS Inspectors found that responsibility for the various improper practices which existed within the Bank rested with its senior management.

Last April, the High Court determined that Mr Lacey bore important responsibility for the continuation of the six practices criticised in the High Court Inspectors’ Report, and I welcome the Court’s affirmation of the significant duty which rests with company directors to secure their company’s compliance with its major legal obligations.

Today’s decision reminds directors of their responsibilities and of the personal consequences which may flow from a failure to take effective steps to correct non-compliance in their companies. The decision is also important in clearly demonstrating that we are serious about promoting and upholding high standards of corporate governance in Ireland.”

The current status of the nine disqualification actions originally initiated in 2005 is summarised in the following table. Seven of them (including Lacey’s case) remain before the Courts.

Disqualification granted by the High Court – No Appeal	1
Disqualification granted by the High Court – Respondents Appeal	4
Disqualification refused by the High Court – Appeal by Office of Director of Corporate Enforcement pending	2
Disqualification overturned by the Supreme Court	1

The effect of a disqualification order is to prohibit a person from being appointed or acting as an auditor, director or other officer, receiver, liquidator or examiner or being in any way, whether directly or indirectly, concerned or taking part in the promotion, formation or management of any company, or any society registered under the Industrial and Provident Societies Acts 1893 to 1978.

Lacey intends to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Fianna Fáil clumsy angling for the winner’s enclosure at the next Irish Presidential Election

Micheál Martin has given Fianna Fáil councillors free rein to vote as they wish with respect to the selection of candidates to contest the Presidential election.

But such a disposition towards something as important as the next presidential election, the first in 14 years is pathetic and self-serving. The Presidency is an office that has performed so flawlessly and is so deeply esteemed that the least Fianna Fáil could have done is to set out the qualities, ideals, and characteristics that Martin believes are a prerequisite for a credible candidate before declaring that their councillors have a free vote.

Those characteristics ought to include, for example, personal stature, evidence of a capacity to safeguard the dignity of the Office while capably promoting our national reputation with a style, elegance, energy and impact that is commendable; skills in social leadership and an ability to relate to all facets of society in Ireland and elsewhere; a thorough understanding of the Constitutional position of the Presidency and a perspective on how the Presidency could be further developed to build on the legacy accomplished.

The choosing of candidates for this election is therefore not a similar exercise to that of a bull-run, where a cohort of the sartorially challenged and politically spontaneous presenting themselves as independent candidates for Dáil Éireann or Seanad Éireann with an alternative outlook on the universe that is adapted and scripted by them on the hoof.

Several individuals have indicated a desire to seek a nomination to contest the presidential election but none of them have really spelled why they are sufficiently distinguished and accomplished to prompt the electorate to vote for them.

Finally, the Office of President has become something of a family enterprise with the President’s family, especially the spouse, playing a crucial role in the success of a presidential term. None of the prospective candidates have indicated if they have any back-up of this nature to support what has become a very complex and personally demanding role requiring an incumbent of exceptional talent and ability.

Fianna Fáil would need to extend their commitment to the process of qualifying candidates beyond a desire to be in the winners enclosure next November, whether the winner is, or is not, a Fianna Fáil devotee.

Fine Gael to reverse minimum wage cut

Fine Gael’s Michael Noonan TD has unilaterally confirmed that a Fine Gael government will reverse the minimum wage cut imposed by Brian Lenihan in the 2011 Budget. Noonan presumably believes that his solo run will not have moral hazard consequences but he omitted to indicate what Ireland’s rankings in the EU Harmonised Labour Cost Index is likely to be one year after a Fine Gael led government takes office.

The National Minimum Wage Act 2000 set the minimum wage for an adult at €4.40 per hour. The Irish minimum wage increased by over 96% from 2000 to 2009 while GDP per capita in that period had increased by 11.8%.

The restoration of the statutory minimum wage to €8.65 per hour (€17,542 per annum) on the basis that ‘only 3% of the labour force are paid the minimum wage and that its reduction was merely ideological flag waving on the part of Fianna Fáil’.  That begs the question – what happens to the other 97% of the nation’s labour force.

Approximately 3.3% of the labour force received the minimum wage in 2005 when the hourly rate was €7.65; 155,000 were on the Live Register and 91,300 were unemployed.

But in 2006 data from the Revenue Commissioners indicates that 675,000 of those assessed for income tax declared an annual income that was significantly less than the minimum wage before it was increased to €8.30 on 1 January 2007 and to €8.65 on 1 July that year. There are also more minimum wage recipients in the public sector than in the private sector.

Wages and salaries in Ireland dropped by 10.6% in overall terms in the year ended 30 September 2010, before the 2011 Budget was announced.   29% of the labour force do not even make the equivalent of the minimum wage annually and a further 13.5% are unemployed. 

Fine Gael intend to slash tens of thousands of jobs from the public sector and close 145 State bodies.  Who is going to pay the cost of this proposal and what impact will it have on investment, exports, job creation and job maintenance of a scale sufficiently large to reduce chronic levels of unemployment and forced emigration, both documented and undocumented? 

Fine Gael need to clearly articulate the character and stability of living standards and hardship avoidance that will evolve for all citizens under their governance and the relative importance that wealth, welfare and debt will have in underpinning these.

‘Andrews’ – an enduring political icon in Dun Laoghaire

Andrews is one of the most enduring names in the electoral politics of Dun Laoghaire since April 1965 when 29-year old David Andrews made his debut as a Fianna Fáil TD. It was a 4-seat constituency from 1965 until 1981 when it became a 5-seater.  This legacy has survived the leadership of Lemass, Haughey. Ahern and, latterly, Cowen.

David Andrews was succeeded by his son Barry in the 2002 general election when he polled 7,425 votes in his first outing.

During the intervening 46 years the Andrews candidature has secured 121,103 first preference votes in 13 general elections when the cumulative quota was 111,240. The Andrews ticket beat quota in 8 of these elections. Barry Andrews achieved 83% of quota in his maiden outing but in 2007 he achieved 102% of quota – a solid 9,977 first preference votes.

Now that the constituency is once again a 4-seater it would be presumptuous to presume that the Andrews name will not prevail in 2011

 

Election	Barry Andrews	David Andrews	% Quota
2007		9,786	102%
2002		8,939	83%
1997	8,933		99%
1992	13,418		136%
1989	9,987		114%
1987	8,414		91%
1982 - 11	7,643		91%
1982 - 02	7,931		98%
1981	9,471		118%
1977	8,754		115%
1973	10,926		130%
1969	10,292		137%
1965	7,932		105%

Fianna Fail circus heads for the knackers yard

Fianna Fáil seems to be travelling in a parallel trajectory to that of the Ulster Unionist Party and are as likely to end up in the same long-term predicament. Lapses in political judgement and common sense this week illustrate how dislocated FF has become from its centre of gravity, its duty accountability and responsibility and, even, its raison d'etre. 

The carry-on was reminiscent of a badly produced circus and a crass attempt at the crudest political expediency for which no price seems to be too much to pay. Do Brian Cowen and Mary Coughlan really think that voters are gormless fools who will tolerate well paid individuals walking away en masse from important roles before the job is complete, leaving the conduct of government like a ghost housing estate? Were those who fled really team players, or merely a collection of eccentrics, oblivious to the public interest but with an exclusive focus on suiting their own whims, personal priorities and preferences?  A master craftsman who starts a job is expected to finish that job – not hand it off to a novice apprentice.

Have there not been enough episodes of atrocious governance, both within and beyond the political system, not to have a situation arise where there was a major lacuna in the control of the most important departments of State - justice, health, enterprise and public transport? 

Fianna Fail could have made a case to the electorate on the grounds that much has been learned from their lousy economic policy judgement and atrocious leadership of the economy from 2003 to 2007 but, instead, this week’s events demonstrate the opposite with Brian Lenihan and Mary Hanafin talking from both sides of their political mouth about Brian Cowen as though he is a fig roll – ‘I like him as a biscuit, but not as a bar’!

Ireland has made no political progress or accomplished any greater maturity towards stability than was the position when Rody Molloy drove home from his chief executive’s office in his FAS owned car for the last time - with the blessing of the Department of Finance.

Are Irish political opinion polls really accurate?

Have Irish political parties become intoxicated by opinion polls as they reflect on their ambition to abseil the pantheon of political stardom?

While the polls are giving Fianna Fail a severe hangover, they also indicate that support is not committed firmly and that opinion polls really do not capture voting intentions in a representative way. How could they when those seeking to enter government appear to be paralysed by inertia and in sleep-walking mode within an anticipated 100 days of a widely expected general election?  Perhaps they ought to examine the message from the electorate in opinion polls more closely and not merely rely on the froth of the headline trend.

Fine Gael have yet to choose candidates in 7 Dáil constituencies and given the considerable number of Fine Gael candidates chosen who are strangers to the electorate there is little flair or imagination evident on their web site to educate the electorate about their candidate offering and policies.  

The Labour Party web site does not identify one single general election candidate. Their web site offers the usual blancmange of a ‘better’, ‘fairer’ nation but they still blather about ‘Stop NAMA’ and the ‘threatened’ move to transfer €90 million of property loans from banks. Despite the opinion polls there is no evidence that Labour has a well-drilled, sophisticated, army in place to fight the battle ahead. Will positive opinion poll trends be soured by poor candidate selection?  

The web site of Sinn Féin does have a tab called ‘candidate’ – but that relates to their candidates for the May 2010 British general election in their traditional heartlands in Northern Ireland. Apart from media reports that Mr Adams is to migrate to somewhere in Co Louth there is no evidence that Sinn Féin is serious about general election in the Republic of Ireland other than a generic warble about ‘better’, ‘fairer’ ‘change’ and continue pursuing the goal of Liam Mellows and Bobby Sands ‘to bring us closer to our goals of Irish unity and independence’. Independence of what – the IMF and the ECB? They advocate ‘building an Ireland of equals’ – would that be equality of debt, bound in the chains of eternal welfare, poverty, aimlessness and hopelessness? Given the experience of the 2007 general election a voter would have expected to observe the shoots of economic genius and economic leadership but perhaps what is not there simply cannot be observed and what is offered by Sinn Féin is merely rousing neighbourhood activism. 

The Green Party, at whose instigation, the timing of this general election is to be determined, have shrouded the identity of potential candidates, the constituencies they intend to contest and policies for the future in opacity as dark as mushroom compost covered in black polythene. Is their stamina exhausted or a symptom of jaded leadership? 

The electorate deserve to be informed of the identity of general election candidates; to understand their values and competency. The electorate should not be expected to make choices wearing a blindfold. The electorate also need to form an opinion on the capacity of parties to govern with integrity, wisdom and decisiveness. Ireland will not waffle its way, using clichés, to achieve a semblance of recovery. 

Replacing Cowen now is fraught with misjudgement

The Irish media are full of speculation this weekend about the political future of Brian Cowen.  He has never fought a general election as Taoiseach and consequently has never had the endorsement of the people since he succeeded Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach on 7 May 2008.

Some argue that he will stand down before the next imminent general election.  There is no Constitutional impediment and some argue that a new leader is necessary if Fianna Fáil is to survive.

Those who advocate replacing Brian Cowen before the next general election ought to realise that it is only in failed states that the of head of government position is decided upon exclusively by an elite opportunistic clique. The notion that Brian Cowen should be replaced imminently is tantamount to suggesting that a stranger would take the place of a candidate at an important public examination. Cowen’s legacy and political future must be decided by the people at the next general election. The right of the people in our democracy to return their verdict on the leadership and record of any Taoiseach and his, or her, cabinet is inalienable and should be protected by the Constitution. 

The flesh of this nation has been under attack from smart-alec politicians for 40 years and its skeleton is now imploding as a consequence.  Political degradation and dysfunctional leadership caused the surrender of sovereignty and also dramatically changes the dynamics leading to the next presidential election. It will take more than a four-year National Recovery Plan and spun messages rooted in bland anecdotes of prior accomplishments to restore the prestige and eminence of Ireland across the world. Each of the political parties must recognise this and put forward a first-class presidential candidate who clearly demonstrate integrity, values, wisdom and the capacity to inspire the restoration of the nation’s withered morale.

Senator Callely’s defence of expenses lacks substance

Senator Ivor Callely, (Ivor the Driver) must think the public are a gullible posse of morons, as illiterate as himself but with a screw loose.  He announced that the trauma of rejection following his defeat in the last general election prompted him to move to West Cork – hence the justification for dipping his hand in the public purse and taking over €81,000 from it.  Callely’s fall fro grace in 2007 was cushioned by severance payments of €31,754 in 2007 and €17,465 in 2008.  These were based on 75% of his ministerial salary.  He also received a pension of €677 in 2007 and €8,986 in 2008.

Callely’s flaccid statement to Seanad Éireann on 2 June, indicated that the politicians’ expense regime is complex and there are anomalies in the system. If an expenses regime is so lacking in transparency how can the public have a scintilla of confidence in it?  If it is difficult to explain an expenses regime, designed by politicians for the benefit of themselves, in terms that the general public would regard as fair, reasonable and appropriate, that alone is a powerful argument against such a system.

Voters expect politicians to be personally responsible and accountable for the expenses they claim. They expect claims to be based only on the reimbursement of costs which are wholly, exclusively and unavoidably necessary in the performance of parliamentary duties. They also expect a level of integrity and verification that is characterised by high a standard of honesty and probity.

Voters will not tolerate politicians being personally enriched at public expense. Why, for example, should politicians be able to claim travel expenses in respect of journeys when they do not use their own vehicles, or are eligible for free travel on public transport? The concept of claiming travel expenses from a variety of widely dispersed personal addresses is indefensible and unacceptable.

If the Select Committee on Members’ Interests investigation determines that payments have been made on foot of expense claims which ought not to have been admissible they must  insist on the immediate reimbursement of such monies, plus interest, before considering other sanctions. By the end of May the cost of interest on the national debt was equivalent to 44% of all income tax revenues collected to date in 2010. If the Government intend to further penalise taxpayers is it not reasonable that issues, such as inadmissible politicians expenses, are fully and promptly resolved at no burden to the taxpayer?

Senator Callely: Repay exorbitant expenses

The report that Senator Ivor Callely has been paid over €80,000 since 2007 in respect of travel expenses from an address in West Cork to Leinster House is extraordinary, bizarre and one more example of the self-serving, greedy, behaviour that vexes voters' so intensely that it cost Peter Robinson and many other outgoing MP's their parliamentary seat in the recent British general election.

This Oireachtas web site lists Callely's home address as being on St Lawrence Rd, Clontarf, Dublin. The public telephone directory lists his telephone number at this address. His name is also listed on the current Register of Electors at this address, which is within walking distance of Leinster House.  Callely’s political web site states that he maintains constituency office address on Howth Road and he confirms that he lives in the Dáil constituency of Dublin North-Central.  Cork is not mentioned in any context. His role as a Taoiseach's nominee to Seanad Éireann has no connection whatsoever with any town in Ireland.

An individual can only have one domicile, or recognised permanent residence, at a time and the evidence in the public domain indicates that Senator Callely’s chosen domicile is not and has never been in Co. Cork.  How could taxpayers' possibly accept these expenses as being reasonable?  The system of politicians' expenses must not be exploited for personal financial advantage and there ought to be effective and proportionate sanctions for breaches of rules robustly enforced and administered independently of politicians.  It should also provide value for taxpayers' that is not necessarily judged by reference to financial costs alone.

Senator Callely needs to understand that the Celtic Tiger party ended in 2007 as unemployment soared towards half a million, negative equity tore the heart and soul out of tens of thousands of Irish households while the bulk of those in employment coped with swingeing pay and expense cuts.  Will Senator Callely promptly and voluntarily repay this €80,000 which, it would seem, should never have been paid had the controls of the Oireachtas Commission been sufficiently robust and vigilant, or will the Oireachtas Commission be obliged to engage in an adversarial protracted process to extract repayment from him?

Is it also not time for all politicians' expenses to be routinely published each quarter by the Oireachtas Commission to demonstrate some modicum of transparency, equity and good practice, especially with respect to compliance?  It should not be necessary to rely on the Freedom of Information Act to obtain such basic data.  Publication would fulfil a core component of the Commission's mission, the promotion of public understanding of the work of parliament and the cost of providing what it describes as "a world-class parliament".  The operating cost of our 226-member Dáil and Seanad was almost €153 million in 2008.  The salaries and expenses of 650 members' of the Westminster Parliament for the same period was slightly over €197 million. 

If the Oireachtas Commission fails to rectify this matter then, presumably, a precedent is set whereby each member of the Oireachtas and every public sector worker can acquire an accommodation address as remote from Dublin, or the location of their employment, as possible for the purpose of maximising the amount of money that can be gouged from the public purse. This might have the effect of repopulating the islands from Tory to Cape Clear but it would also leave the bond holders who pay the day-to-day expenses of running the country incandescent, perplexed and likely to confuse Ireland with Greece.

Dirty, dilapidated and jaded Dún Laoghaire

Has the ‘get-up-and-go’ of Dún Laoghaire simply ‘got-up-and-gone’?

Centre of Dun Laoghaire

 

There is something unique about being out and about early on a Sunday morning. No traffic, vehicular or pedestrian and little noise or bustle to thwart one’s perception. Shortly after daybreak this morning I walked along the High Street of Dún Laoghaire – Upper and Lower Georges Street, Cumberland Street, and Crofton Rd.

A High Street is a metonym for the primary business district of a town – typically its principal retail zone which ought to reap the economic benefit of its hinterland.  It could be regarded as the vital organ, beating heart, or smiling face of a confident community; a community with a definite sense of purpose; a community with a clear identity and an awareness of its potential as well as its past.

Champs Élyées serves this purpose in Paris as does Newbury Street in Boston, Oxford Street in London, 5^th Avenue in New York and Castle Street in Dalkey. Dún Laoghaire has its share of poverty and distress but it is not an economically deprived ghetto wasteland!  Yet a Martian could form that opinion by strolling along its High Street.

Dún Laoghaire is the county town of county of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, a county with its own 28-member council and an electorate of over 150,000 persons. 

Dún Laoghaire occupies a unique position in our national makeup. The first railway in Ireland was opened between Dublin and Dún Laoghaire in 1834. Its magnificent granite harbour took 42 years to complete and has been an important gateway to Ireland for passenger ferries and ships since 1859. The modern harbour has been the recipient of much investment – several marinas, four active yacht clubs and a newly developed terminal used by Stena Lines for its fast ferry service to Holyhead.  But it is the High Street that radiates the soul of a place.

The town itself expanded in the Victorian and Edwardian era as a desirable residential suburb. It continues to be a much sought after location in which to live, offering plenty of amenities, long established and well thought of schools and most agreeable coastal scenery and other attractive natural resources.

But there is now a plethora of dirty, litter-laden, vacant retail premises in this vicinity with chewing gum embedded on the adjacent footpath. The High Street seems to attract nothing other than hucksters outlets, discount stores, fast-food outlets, charity shops and various transient enterprises, mostly offering low-value junk. There is hardly a brand name over a shop front that would be recognised in an adjacent postal district.  The epicentre of retailing never reached this town. Nowadays, nearby Dundrum has overtaken and overshadowed it with its modern town centre the main showpiece.

Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown is not deprived of political influence. Its two Fianna Fáil TD’s include a cabinet minister (Mary Hanafin) and a Minister who attends government meetings (Barry Andrews).   Twenty of the 28 council seats are filled by Fine Gael and Labour members – the parties who aspire the form the backbone of the next government. The current Cathaoirleach of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council is Marie Baker.  She has represented the Blackrock Ward since 2004 and managed to spearhead an increase in her party’s share of the poll in the most recent local elections from 27% to 39%.  That vote of confidence now needs  be reciprocated with effective leadership and genius.  There is also an active Chamber of Commerce whose mission is to promote the town, but can it do no more than make a silk purse from a sow’s ear?

It is surprising, given this ambition, that Fine Gael and Labour don’t demonstrate a capacity to govern effectively at local level. Nothing demonstrates such a capacity more than the vitality of the High Street. Robert Mugabe would be embarrassed by the High Street of Dún Laoghaire.

I was saddened and surprised to observe 
two large Fine Gael local election posters, now obsolete for 4 months, adorn one of the litter-laden, spider infested vacant shops. What a gesture of civic indifference!  Come on, have they no pride?

Delinquent banks and economic recession have made their mark but there is no relationship between using a yard brush to clean a High Street premises and water to wash its facade with the economic downturn. Owners who neglect High Street properties ought to be heavily fined.  Political indifference is a symptom of a lazy, myopic, indolent culture. How could an electorate be convinced that those who control the country council are fit the govern the nation when the jewel in the county crown is a heap of neglected shit? ‘A fairer Ireland’, how are you!

The fact that this morning I passed the body of a dead man lying face down on the footpath outside the entrance of St Michael’s Hospital on Crofton Road merely added to the overall spectre of a town that itself is dead and awaiting a shroud.

There are several excellent public buildings in town.  The original County Hall has been skilfully extended and the old and new structures are seamlessly integrated – as it the case with the Boston Public Library on Boylston Street. 

The Harbour Authority occupies an outstanding landmark headquarters overlooking the Harbour..

 

 

The new ferry terminal is magnificent, as is the newly constructed headquarters of Irish Lights.

But my vote in the next general election will be influenced by the party, or parties, that demonstrate a convincing capacity to govern. I am no longer won over by hysteria, shibboleths or clichés!  My litmus test will be the vitality of Georges Street.

Where to now for Sinn Fein in Dublin?

THE President of Sinn Féin, Gerry Adams MP MLA, in a interview with Michael Moriarty Northern Editor of The Irish Times on 8 August stated that regaining lost ground in Dublin “is ultra-important because if you can get a critical active campaigning organisation there you are likely to get more publicity, to get the media exposure and so on”. What’s been happening to Sinn Féin in Dublin?

The 2002 general election was the first since The Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin won 40,450 first preference votes in Dublin and won Dáil seats in Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West and the successful candidate there topped the poll and surpassed a quota. Candidate stood in all 11 Dublin constituencies. Two of these, Larry O’Toole and Dessie Ellis, were established members of Dublin City Council. O’Toole polled 3,003 votes in Dublin North-East to secure fifth place in that 3-seater. Ellis polled 4,781 votes to secure fourth place in the Dublin North-West 3-seater – not a breakthrough on their local council vote.

The party polled 51,943 votes in the 2004 local elections in Dublin and secured 12.2% of all votes cast in the three Dublin local authorities. They performed slightly better north of the Liffey securing a 14.5% share of the vote compared to a 10.5% share south of the Liffey. Top vote getters O’Toole polled 4,497 votes in Artane and Ellis polled 4,300 votes in Finglas. Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Dublin City Council, 3 seats on South Dublin County Council, 1 seat on Fingal County County Council and none on Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council. However, four of their winners, O’Toole, Ellis, Kehoe and Forde surpassed a quota in 2002 but Ellis was the only one to emulate this in 2004.

The 2004 European Parliament Election enticed a higher turnout in Dublin than in 1999. The valid poll increased from 286,684 votes to 421,897 votes. Mary Lou McDonald polled 60,395 votes and won the fourth of four seats. When McDonald stood as a candidate in Dublin West in the 2002 general election she polled 2,404 votes. She stood as a candidate in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election and polled 3,182 votes.

The 2007 general election resulted in a significant shrinkage in support for Sinn Féin. The party won 35,256 votes in the 11 Dublin constituencies – representing a 7% share of the Dublin vote and 16,687 fewer than in the previous general election. They secured just one Dáil seat that of Aengus Ó’Snodaigh in Dublin South-Central. He won the fifth seat with 4,825 votes, 776 fewer than in 2002. The vote of the star performed in 2002, Seán Crowe plummeted to 5,066. They lost ground in 9 of the 11 constituencies and particularly so in Dublin South-West (-8.1%), Dublin Central (-5.4%) and Dublin West (-3.2%). The extent of the overall downturn was consistent, north and south of the Liffey.

There was a further contraction in support in the 2009 local elections. A total of 36,241 votes were won in the three Dublin local authority areas compared to 51,953 votes in the previous local election – a 30% reversal in voter support.

Larry O’Toole’s star waned when he polled just 2,702 votes in Artane, just shy of a quota. Dessie Ellis also took a hit at the polls in Finglas when he won 3,263 votes compared to the 4,300 he won in 2004. They have five seats on Dublin City Council and would have had five if Councillor Christy Burke had not abandoned his 25-year stint as a Sinn Féin councillor and Councillor Louise Minihan had not opted to become an Independent on the grounds that she “no longer supports or believes in the party”.  While they had a winner in Cabra-Glasnevin in 2009, possibly as a consequence of the electoral travails of ‘the brudder’, Maurice Ahern, their vote in this area was down by 12.5%.  The endured a similar haircut in South-East Inner City and in Tallaght-Central, although Sean Crowe won a seat on the 9th count.

Mary Lou McDonald lost her bid to secure one of the 3 seats in the Dublin European Parliament election. Her vote dropped to 47,928 despite her elevation to the role of Vice President.

Summary of Sinn Votes in Dublin

	1st Preference Votes
2002 – General Election	40,450
2004 - Local Election	51,943
2004 – European Parliament Election	47,928
2007 – General Election	35,356
2009 – Local Election	36,241
2009 – European Parliament Election	47,928

Dublin by-elections

The two Dublin by-elections in 2009 did not any relief to the prevailing trend. While Councillor Christy Burke picked up 588 more votes than Mary Lou McDonald did in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election that compares to the 138 votes lost in the Dublin South by-election.

Floating Vote, general elections.

The floating vote in each of these elections caries quite significantly from one to another.

The floating vote between the two general elections as 13.4%. An extra 17,842 voters turned out in 2007 and 43,414 who voted in 2004 changed their vote in 2007.

The floating vote between the two sets of local elections was 85,357 – 20.1%. The losers were Fianna Fáil (30,490), Greens (13,871), Sinn Féin (15,702), Progressive Democrats – now obsolete (24,631), Socialists (663) and a lower turnout of 17,037 voters. Those who gained were Fine Gael (20,151) and Labour (27,157)

The floating vote between the two Euro elections was 16.3% in Dublin. The turnout was lower by 15,257 and the losers were Fianna Fáil (23,648), Labour (11,580), Sinn Féin (12,467) and Greens (21,359).

 

Vote transfer patterns, general elections

	2002	2007
North of the Liffey
Received	3,003	2,410
Gave	10,857	12,145
South of the Liffey
Received	3,831	3,708
Gave	11,974	9,233

 

 

This is a function of when a candidate is eliminated but the message is that there are relatively few votes being transferred to Sinn Féin. 

 

Mr Adams refers to future ambitions in the context of they being ‘a long haul’. I wonder do the electorate in the State have the same attitude to Sinn Féin as the electorate in Northern Ireland have to candidates sponsored by the Tories and the Labour Party.

There is much soul searching to be done and I reckon that the electorate need more to stimulate them than the sight of Martin Ferris TD greeting and facilitating two convicts on their release from Castlerea Prison at the conclusion of their sentence for killing Garda Jerry McCabe on duty.

Dublin European Parliament Election Postscript

Now that the dust has settled it is interesting to reflect who were the ‘king-makers’ in the Dublin European Parliament election on 5 June by comparing the vote transfers in 2009 with those of the previous Euro election on 11 June 2004

Electorate

The electorate in 2009 at 812,465, was slightly less than in 2004.  The total valid poll was lower at 406,630 compared to 421,897 in 2004.  As there were only 3 seats to be filled in 2009 the quota was higher at 101,658 compared to 84,380 last time.

Fianna Fail

The outgoing MEP, Eoin Ryan polled 55,346 in 2009, slightly less than the 61,681 he polled in 2004.  But his running mate this time, former Lord Mayor of Dublin, Eibhlin Byrne polled over 17,300 few votes than Ryan’s running mate last time, Royston Brady.  He never recovered ground and his widely predicted defeat materialised. Byrne was an excellent and gracious Lord Mayor but the tide against Fianna Fail was overwhelming.

Fine Gael

Gay Mitchell polled 96,715 votes this time and this was a real boost for Fine Gael in Dublin whose electoral efforts in the capital did not surpass 90,000 votes in the last several elections.  When he achieved quota on Count 4, half of Mitchell’s surplus of 2,755 votes went to Proinsias De Rossa but over 20% went to Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail.

Labour

De Rossa’s polled a very credible 83,471 votes as a solo candidate.  He had a running mate in 2004, Ivana Bacik, who polled over 40,000 votes.

Green Party

Deirdre de Burca polled 19,086 votes, less than half the 40,000 votes the Greens have polled in greater Dublin in the past several elections.  Former Green Party MEP, Patricia McKenna, polled 17,521 votes in 2009, less than half of what she achieved as a Green Party candidate.  However, she stayed in the race longer than de Burca, having achieved over 4,000 second preferences from Simons, the Libertas candidate and 2,833 from de Burca.  Approximately 18% of deBurca’s second preferences went to Fianna Fail but only 9.6% of Fianna Fail transfers went to The Green Party

Sinn Fein

The votes were simply not there this time for Mary Lou McDonald,  She polled an exceptional 60,395 first preference votes in 2004 but this time she just polled 47,928 and never caught up. She got over 2,100 second preferences from de Burca and over 2,700 from McKenna.

Socialist Party

The sun and moon were perfectly aligned this time for Joe Higgins who won 0ver 50,000 first preferences in 2009 compared to the 23,218 he polled in 2004. He obtained a steady amount of second preference from the Independents and McKenna which helped put a margin of 2,800 votes between himself and McDonald when she dropped out at Count 6.  Higgins collected over 27,000 of her second preferences which meant that he was in the winners enclosure.