Showing posts with label The Green Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Green Party. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Are Irish political opinion polls really accurate?

Have Irish political parties become intoxicated by opinion polls as they reflect on their ambition to abseil the pantheon of political stardom?

While the polls are giving Fianna Fail a severe hangover, they also indicate that support is not committed firmly and that opinion polls really do not capture voting intentions in a representative way. How could they when those seeking to enter government appear to be paralysed by inertia and in sleep-walking mode within an anticipated 100 days of a widely expected general election?  Perhaps they ought to examine the message from the electorate in opinion polls more closely and not merely rely on the froth of the headline trend.

Fine Gael have yet to choose candidates in 7 Dáil constituencies and given the considerable number of Fine Gael candidates chosen who are strangers to the electorate there is little flair or imagination evident on their web site to educate the electorate about their candidate offering and policies.  

The Labour Party web site does not identify one single general election candidate. Their web site offers the usual blancmange of a ‘better’, ‘fairer’ nation but they still blather about ‘Stop NAMA’ and the ‘threatened’ move to transfer €90 million of property loans from banks. Despite the opinion polls there is no evidence that Labour has a well-drilled, sophisticated, army in place to fight the battle ahead. Will positive opinion poll trends be soured by poor candidate selection?  

The web site of Sinn Féin does have a tab called ‘candidate’ – but that relates to their candidates for the May 2010 British general election in their traditional heartlands in Northern Ireland. Apart from media reports that Mr Adams is to migrate to somewhere in Co Louth there is no evidence that Sinn Féin is serious about general election in the Republic of Ireland other than a generic warble about ‘better’, ‘fairer’ ‘change’ and continue pursuing the goal of Liam Mellows and Bobby Sands ‘to bring us closer to our goals of Irish unity and independence’. Independence of what – the IMF and the ECB? They advocate ‘building an Ireland of equals’ – would that be equality of debt, bound in the chains of eternal welfare, poverty, aimlessness and hopelessness? Given the experience of the 2007 general election a voter would have expected to observe the shoots of economic genius and economic leadership but perhaps what is not there simply cannot be observed and what is offered by Sinn Féin is merely rousing neighbourhood activism. 

The Green Party, at whose instigation, the timing of this general election is to be determined, have shrouded the identity of potential candidates, the constituencies they intend to contest and policies for the future in opacity as dark as mushroom compost covered in black polythene. Is their stamina exhausted or a symptom of jaded leadership? 

The electorate deserve to be informed of the identity of general election candidates; to understand their values and competency. The electorate should not be expected to make choices wearing a blindfold. The electorate also need to form an opinion on the capacity of parties to govern with integrity, wisdom and decisiveness. Ireland will not waffle its way, using clichés, to achieve a semblance of recovery. 

Monday, December 27, 2010

What promise does 2011 hold for Ireland?

We ought to remind ourselves that the average age of our abundantly educated, talented, well-travelled, multi-lingual, sophisticated population is under 35 years and that in itself is a magnificent asset. But the chamber of celestial irrelevancies is entirely populated by jaded, faded mainly late middle-aged members, not one of whom is under 30 years of age. How could they possibly have a relevant engaging relationship, vibrant empathy and a convincing understanding of the needs and aspirations of that younger cohort of the population whose prospects they have seriously blighted?

A new lexicon, based on dubious sense of entitlement, has emerged in Ireland that has allowed its advocates to become more and more detached from the necessity of earning prosperity and wellbeing. Politicians using the expression ‘fair and just’ as code for unsustainable levels of welfare, of a scale that ought not to be necessary in a viable, stable, pay-your-way economy but the scale of which creates a long-term poverty trap for those in receipt of it and those who are obliged to pay for it.

‘Fair and reasonable’ is becoming synonymous with exorbitant professional fees and charges, bonus payments, retirement entitlements of ministers’ etc. – which are also on a scale that is detached from our economic reality. How can a bust nation, whose sovereignty has been surrendered and whose GDP accounts for such a tiny portion of that of the EU, for example, support so many professional firms whose annual revenues place them firmly in the top quartile of their European counterparts? If ‘fair and reasonable’ payments are significantly higher than international norms and greatly exceed what can be afforded – what particular criteria define ‘fair and reasonable’ and what outcomes are delivered by those in receipt of such largesse other than a well-nurtured sense of infinite entitlement?

Ireland’s GDP in 2009 is apparently being 27% higher than the EU average as a consequence of asset price inflation but this so-called wealth is not capable of fully employing the nation’s population or funding its spiralling debt. Where is it, who controls it and how productive is it and what benefit is the nation achieving from it?

Ireland needs an establishment that recognises the importance of and is capable of delivery the nation from one generation to the next in a more enhanced condition than prevailed when they obtained the power to influence it. That requires more than a Dáil comprised of neighbourhood populists, passing opportunists, the unimaginative self-righteous and sundry ‘blow-in’s’ from distant parts.

But neither Fine Gael, the Greens, nor The Labour Party has presented a complete panel of prospective candidates to the electorate to contest the general election that is to take place only weeks away. How can the electorate form an opinion of what these parties are capable of achieving, or is the electorate to merely rely on the trends in opinion polls to identify virtue and potential?

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Where to now for Sinn Fein in Dublin?

adams THE President of Sinn Féin, Gerry Adams MP MLA, in a interview with Michael Moriarty Northern Editor of The Irish Times on 8 August stated that regaining lost ground in Dublin “is ultra-important because if you can get a critical active campaigning organisation there you are likely to get more publicity, to get the media exposure and so on”. What’s been happening to Sinn Féin in Dublin?

The 2002 general election was the first since The Good Friday Agreement. Sinn Féin won 40,450 first preference votes in Dublin and won Dáil seats in Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West and the successful candidate there topped the poll and surpassed a quota. Candidate stood in all 11 Dublin constituencies. Two of these, Larry O’Toole and Dessie Ellis, were established members of Dublin City Council. O’Toole polled 3,003 votes in Dublin North-East to secure fifth place in that 3-seater. Ellis polled 4,781 votes to secure fourth place in the Dublin North-West 3-seater – not a breakthrough on their local council vote.

The party polled 51,943 votes in the 2004 local elections in Dublin and secured 12.2% of all votes cast in the three Dublin local authorities. They performed slightly better north of the Liffey securing a 14.5% share of the vote compared to a 10.5% share south of the Liffey. Top vote getters O’Toole polled 4,497 votes in Artane and Ellis polled 4,300 votes in Finglas. Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Dublin City Council, 3 seats on South Dublin County Council, 1 seat on Fingal County County Council and none on Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council. However, four of their winners, O’Toole, Ellis, Kehoe and Forde surpassed a quota in 2002 but Ellis was the only one to emulate this in 2004.

The 2004 European Parliament Election enticed a higher turnout in Dublin than in 1999. The valid poll increased from 286,684 votes to 421,897 votes. Mary Lou McDonald polled 60,395 votes and won the fourth of four seats. When McDonald stood as a candidate in Dublin West in the 2002 general election she polled 2,404 votes. She stood as a candidate in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election and polled 3,182 votes.

The 2007 general election resulted in a significant shrinkage in support for Sinn Féin. The party won 35,256 votes in the 11 Dublin constituencies – representing a 7% share of the Dublin vote and 16,687 fewer than in the previous general election. They secured just one Dáil seat that of Aengus Ó’Snodaigh in Dublin South-Central. He won the fifth seat with 4,825 votes, 776 fewer than in 2002. The vote of the star performed in 2002, Seán Crowe plummeted to 5,066. They lost ground in 9 of the 11 constituencies and particularly so in Dublin South-West (-8.1%), Dublin Central (-5.4%) and Dublin West (-3.2%). The extent of the overall downturn was consistent, north and south of the Liffey.

There was a further contraction in support in the 2009 local elections. A total of 36,241 votes were won in the three Dublin local authority areas compared to 51,953 votes in the previous local election – a 30% reversal in voter support.

Larry O’Toole’s star waned when he polled just 2,702 votes in Artane, just shy of a quota. Dessie Ellis also took a hit at the polls in Finglas when he won 3,263 votes compared to the 4,300 he won in 2004. They have five seats on Dublin City Council and would have had five if Councillor Christy Burke had not abandoned his 25-year stint as a Sinn Féin councillor and Councillor Louise Minihan had not opted to become an Independent on the grounds that she “no longer supports or believes in the party”.  While they had a winner in Cabra-Glasnevin in 2009, possibly as a consequence of the electoral travails of ‘the brudder’, Maurice Ahern, their vote in this area was down by 12.5%.  The endured a similar haircut in South-East Inner City and in Tallaght-Central, although Sean Crowe won a seat on the 9th count.

Mary Lou McDonald lost her bid to secure one of the 3 seats in the Dublin European Parliament election. Her vote dropped to 47,928 despite her elevation to the role of Vice President.

Summary of Sinn Votes in Dublin

 

1st Preference Votes

2002 – General Election

40,450

2004 - Local Election

51,943

2004 – European Parliament Election

47,928

2007 – General Election

35,356

2009 – Local Election

36,241

2009 – European Parliament Election

47,928

Dublin by-elections

The two Dublin by-elections in 2009 did not any relief to the prevailing trend. While Councillor Christy Burke picked up 588 more votes than Mary Lou McDonald did in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election that compares to the 138 votes lost in the Dublin South by-election.

Floating Vote, general elections.

The floating vote in each of these elections caries quite significantly from one to another.

The floating vote between the two general elections as 13.4%. An extra 17,842 voters turned out in 2007 and 43,414 who voted in 2004 changed their vote in 2007.

The floating vote between the two sets of local elections was 85,357 – 20.1%. The losers were Fianna Fáil (30,490), Greens (13,871), Sinn Féin (15,702), Progressive Democrats – now obsolete (24,631), Socialists (663) and a lower turnout of 17,037 voters. Those who gained were Fine Gael (20,151) and Labour (27,157)

The floating vote between the two Euro elections was 16.3% in Dublin. The turnout was lower by 15,257 and the losers were Fianna Fáil (23,648), Labour (11,580), Sinn Féin (12,467) and Greens (21,359).

 

Vote transfer patterns, general elections

  2002 2007
North of the Liffey    
Received 3,003 2,410
Gave 10,857 12,145
South of the Liffey    
Received 3,831 3,708
Gave 11,974 9,233

 

 

This is a function of when a candidate is eliminated but the message is that there are relatively few votes being transferred to Sinn Féin. 

 

Mr Adams refers to future ambitions in the context of they being ‘a long haul’. I wonder do the electorate in the State have the same attitude to Sinn Féin as the electorate in Northern Ireland have to candidates sponsored by the Tories and the Labour Party.

ferris There is much soul searching to be done and I reckon that the electorate need more to stimulate them than the sight of Martin Ferris TD greeting and facilitating two convicts on their release from Castlerea Prison at the conclusion of their sentence for killing Garda Jerry McCabe on duty.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Dublin European Parliament Election Postscript

EU flag Now that the dust has settled it is interesting to reflect who were the ‘king-makers’ in the Dublin European Parliament election on 5 June by comparing the vote transfers in 2009 with those of the previous Euro election on 11 June 2004

Electorate

The electorate in 2009 at 812,465, was slightly less than in 2004.  The total valid poll was lower at 406,630 compared to 421,897 in 2004.  As there were only 3 seats to be filled in 2009 the quota was higher at 101,658 compared to 84,380 last time.

Fianna Fail

The outgoing MEP, Eoin Ryan polled 55,346 in 2009, slightly less than the 61,681 he polled in 2004.  But his running mate this time, former Lord Mayor of Dublin, Eibhlin Byrne polled over 17,300 few votes than Ryan’s running mate last time, Royston Brady.  He never recovered ground and his widely predicted defeat materialised. Byrne was an excellent and gracious Lord Mayor but the tide against Fianna Fail was overwhelming.

Fine Gael

Gay Mitchell polled 96,715 votes this time and this was a real boost for Fine Gael in Dublin whose electoral efforts in the capital did not surpass 90,000 votes in the last several elections.  When he achieved quota on Count 4, half of Mitchell’s surplus of 2,755 votes went to Proinsias De Rossa but over 20% went to Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail.

Labour

De Rossa’s polled a very credible 83,471 votes as a solo candidate.  He had a running mate in 2004, Ivana Bacik, who polled over 40,000 votes.

Green Party

Deirdre de Burca polled 19,086 votes, less than half the 40,000 votes the Greens have polled in greater Dublin in the past several elections.  Former Green Party MEP, Patricia McKenna, polled 17,521 votes in 2009, less than half of what she achieved as a Green Party candidate.  However, she stayed in the race longer than de Burca, having achieved over 4,000 second preferences from Simons, the Libertas candidate and 2,833 from de Burca.  Approximately 18% of deBurca’s second preferences went to Fianna Fail but only 9.6% of Fianna Fail transfers went to The Green Party

Sinn Fein

The votes were simply not there this time for Mary Lou McDonald,  She polled an exceptional 60,395 first preference votes in 2004 but this time she just polled 47,928 and never caught up. She got over 2,100 second preferences from de Burca and over 2,700 from McKenna.

Socialist Party

The sun and moon were perfectly aligned this time for Joe Higgins who won 0ver 50,000 first preferences in 2009 compared to the 23,218 he polled in 2004. He obtained a steady amount of second preference from the Independents and McKenna which helped put a margin of 2,800 votes between himself and McDonald when she dropped out at Count 6.  Higgins collected over 27,000 of her second preferences which meant that he was in the winners enclosure.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Dublin Euro Election, post mortem

EU flag The voters of Dublin have chosen Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael), Proinsias De Rossa (Labour) and Joe Higgins (Socialist Party) as their three new MEP’s on June 5th.  The media has been full of comment of winners and losers, victors and vanquished, the disappointed and forlorn.  Her is my perspective on the outcome in the Dublin Euro constituency:

 

 

2004 Election

% Share of Poll

2009 Election

% Share of Poll

Electorate

821,723

 

812,465

 

Valid Poll

421,897

 

406,630

 

Quota

84,380

 

101,658

 
Fine Gael
Mitchell


90,749


22%


96,715


24%

Fianna Fail
Ryan
Brady
Byrne


61,681
36,269


13%
9%


55,346

18,956


14%

5%

Labour
De Rossa
Bacik

54,344
40,707

13%
10%

83,471

21%
Green
McKenna
deBurca

40,445

9%


19,086


5%
Socialist
Higgins

23,218

6%

50,510

12%
Sinn Fein
McDonald

60,395

14%

47,928

12%
Libertas
Simons
   
13,514

3%
Independents
McKenna
Sweeney
Despard
Price
Prenderville
Doonan



5,352
4,813
2,071
1,853



2%
1%
<1%
<1%

17,521
3,583

4%
1%

 

Fine Gael

I speculated that if Mitchell obtained 100,000 votes that would be a real breakthrough in Dublin because they never surpassed 90,000 votes heretofore and are poorly organised and poorly represented in several parliamentary constituencies.  This election marks real progress.  Fine Gael now has 334 council seats throughout Ireland and 12 on Dublin City Council, a gain of 2.

Fianna Fail

A drop from 22% to 18% and a rout in the local elections and two by-elections is the reflection of a very angry electorate, many suffering severely as a consequence of the economic downturn and poor government economic management.  Ryan is a well respected politician but he bore the ire of the voters.  His running mate is completing a very successful year as Lord Mayor of Dublin. The number of councillors in Dublin has dropped from 12 to 6 and by over  100 throughout the country to 213.

Labour

Great strides in the local elections cannot mask a 2% drop in Euro support but De Rossa did well as a solo candidate.  While he has service in the European Parliament since 1989 he is not universally known throughout the county.  Labour captured a third of the Dublin city vote in the local elections and are the largest party in Dublin City Council with 19 seats.

Greens

They are suffering the consequences of being a coalition partner in a thoroughly unpopular government and also lost all of its 9 council seats in Dublin. 

Sinn Fein

The 2004 vote was a high watermark that was not sustainable in 2009. They lost 3 of their 10 seats on Dublin City Council.

Socialist Party

Higgins more than doubled his vote but is this surprising when the Live Register exceeds 400,000?  He is regarded as being very committed to his particular perspective.

Libertas

Rejected by the electorate following an anaemic campaign by Simons.  The upstart organization had a substantial seat target across Europe but managed to have only one outgoing French MEP re-elected.  Its tears for the great vision.

Independents

McKenna’s star is on the wane and she is jaded.  The promise she presented as a Green Party candidate failed to inspire.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

By-election woes in Dublin for Fianna Fail

The voters have spoken and cast their verdict. George Lee’s political ambitions have been wholeheartedly endorsed in Dublin South while the voters, while the voters in Dublin Central have remained loyal to the memory of the later Tony Gregory and seemed set to elect his chief aide, Maureen O’Sullivan

DUBLIN
SOUTH

General Election
24 May 2007

By-election
5 June 2009

Electorate

90,882

89,464

Fianna Fáil

25,298 (41.3%)

9,250 (17.7%)

Fine Gael

16,686 (27.2%)

27,768 (53.4%)

Labour

6,384 (10.4%)

10,294 (19.7%)

Green

6,768 (11.0%)

1,846 (3.5%)

Sinn Féin

1,843 (3.0%)

1,705 (3.2%)

Progressive Democrats

4,045 (7.1%)

-

Other

1,173 (2.5%)

Valid Poll / Turnout

61,204 (67.3%)

52,036 (58.2%)

The Ahern brand only managed to secure a 5th place for Maurice.

DUBLIN
CENTRAL

General Election
24 May 2007

By-election
5 June 2009

Electorate

63,423

62,141

Fianna Fáil

15,398 (44.5%)

3,848 (13.5%)

Fine Gael

3,302 (9.5%)

6,439 (22.6%)

Labour

4,353 (12.5%)

4,926 (17.3%)

Green

1,995 (5.7%)

819 (2.8%)

Sinn Féin

3,182 (9.1%)

3,770 (13.2%)

Tony Gregory

4,649 (13.4%)

Maureen O’Sullivan

7,639 (26.8%)

Others

1,760 (5.3%)

817 (3.8%)

Valid Poll / Turnout

34,639 (54.6%)

28,412 (45.7%)

Fianna Fail are in a quite a pickle in Dublin. The have 18 of 130 council seats in the 3 Dublin councils and no representation at all in 10 of the 27 wards. This is quite a tumble from the 40.4% share of the poll achieved in the May 2007 general election and the 19 TD's that it produced.

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Final Phase of Dublin Euro election campaign

Party

Euro Election 2004

General Election 2007

TNS-MRBI Poll,
15 May

TNS-MRBI Poll ,
26 May

Fianna

Fáil

23

39.4

16

14

Fine Gael

22

18.5

26

28

Labour

23

14.2

21

25

Green Party

10

8.4

6

6

Sinn Fein

14

7.1

14

11

Socialist Party

6

2.3

7

9

Other

2

10.1
including PD's

10
McKenna 7
Simons 1

7
McKenna 5
Simons 2

Irish Times TMS MRBI The latest poll data from The Irish Times TNS-MRBI poll shows that Gay Mitchell, the outgoing MEP and Fine Gael candidate has strengthened his position by 2 points and has every prospect of being elected on the first count. The Labour Party candidate, Proinsias De Rossa could also be elected on the first count.

There will be a battle for the 3rd seat and the Socialist Party candidate, Joe Higgins has strengthened his claim at the expense of outgoing MEP and Sinn Féin candidate, Mary Lou McDonald. McDonald’s poll showing has dropped by 3 points and this follows publicity about her poor attendance record at the Parliament – 55%.

While Eoin Ryan’s running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne has maintained her 5% share, Ryan’s has dropped by 2 points to 9%, the same as Higgins.  Byrne has served the city well as Lord Mayor although she was quoted in the media last week as advocating a sentence of community service for Frank Dunlop, who was convicted on his own guilty plea of bribing councillors over a protracted period in relation to planning.  The taxpayer funded a €500,000,000 million tribunal of enquiry to investigate these matters and the consequences of them – overpriced development land, appalling planning decisions and more recently, a burst housing bubble – I would have thought that Her Worship might have served her cause better by holding her breath on this matter.  Too many voters are enduring very costly consequences as an outcome of Dunlop’s bribes on behalf of property developers.

Patricia McKenna, who won 10% of the valid poll in the 2004 Euro election is showing at 5% (from 8%) but this has probably put a hole in the chances of Green Party candidate, Deirdre de Burca. de Burca has failed to make much impact in this campaign and the Green Party position with respect to the second referendum on The Lisbon Treaty is as ambiguous and opaque as the response of the Catholic religious congregations to compensating victims of child sex abuse. The Greens have been criticised for choosing deBruca as a candidate because her political base has been in Wicklow (Leinster constituency) but I don’t think that carries much weight.  But her campaign has been lacklustre, lacking either passion, or inspiration. 

I am not surprised that the Libertas candidate, Caroline Simons has failed to make any impact because she is contesting this election without having even introduced herself to her electorate. It is simply not sufficient to campaign on the basis of tittle-tattle shibboleths and overarching criticism of rivals.  The electorate would also seem hesitant about the concept of a Europe-wide political force being launched from Ireland in this election by individuals who have neither a political record of any apparent impact on community wellbeing.

Post-Lisbon Treaty Referendum Sentiment 

When the first referendum on The Lisbon Treaty was held on 12 June 2008, Dublin voted 51 - 49 against. The TNS-MRBI poll the week prior to the referendum showed 30% in favour, 35% against and 35% undecided. Those who campaigned against the Treaty last year (McDonald, Higgins, McKenna) are not achieving much traction from this in the forthcoming contest.  It will be interesting to discern public sentiment on this matter because a second referendum is pending later this year.  The outcome of the first referendum for each Dublin Dáil was as follows:

 

Electorate

Valid Poll

Yes

No

For
%

Against %

Central

57,864

28,265

12,328

15,816

44%

56%

Mid West

61,622

31,833

12,577

19,182

40%

60%

North

81,550

45,077

22,696

22,194

50%

49%

North Central

51,156

31,245

15,772

15,396

50%

49%

North East

52,432

29,991

12,917

16,973

43%

57%

North West

49,893

26,394

9,576

16,749

36%

63%

South

87,855

51,342

32,190

19,005

63%

37%

South Central

67,499

42,170

16,410

25,624

39%

61%

South East

81,743

27,871

17,111

10,644

61%

38%

South West

56,202

36,181

12,601

23,456

35%

65%

West

52,173

28,421

13,573

14,754

48%

52%

Dun Laoghaire

84,710

49,810

31,534

18,149

63%

36%

TOTAL

784,699

428,600

209,285

217,942

49%

51%

             

 

Impact on Fianna Fáil

The other factor that will be interesting to discern is what exactly will happen to the Fianna Fáil vote in Dublin on June 5th.  The party won 40.4% of the vote in the 2007 general election.  It holds seats in every Dublin constituency – two seats in seven constituencies and five others.

The following table illustrates the strength of Fianna Fáil in each of the Dublin Dáil constituencies in the last general election:

 

Dublin Constituency

FF Share of Valid Poll, 2007

North West

48.8%

South

45.6%

Central

44.5%

North Central

44.0%

North

42.1%

North East

39.7%

South West

39.3%

West

37.4%

Dun Laoghaire

34.9%

Mid West

33.0%

South East

28.7%

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Name recognition in Irish politics

election poster 3Research published by the ESRI last week has revealed that individuals whose names do not have a traditional Irish identity are twice as unlikely to be called for a job interview when they respond to a job advertisement, even if their qualities and qualifications match in all other respects those of a native respondent.

Name recognition is also an important consideration in politics. Sometimes it is the very uniqueness of a name that is important. Take the US presidency, for example. How many times have you hear the name Eisenhower, Roosevelt, Obama being borne by anyone other than His Excellency, the President of the United States? Mhoosajee Bhamjee was also a mould breaker when he won a Labour seat in Clare in the 1992 landslide election for that party. He is also the only Muslim elected to the national parliament.

Name differentiation can help to differentiate an incumbent from an aspirant in the voters mind but it can also cause political inbreeding, inertia and all of the infertile appalling consequences that ensue from this. “if there is a problem it is attributable to something far away”

It will cost over €137 million to run the Leinster House enterprise in 2009 – 44% more than it did just five years ago borne by the same headcount of politicians. There is no question of our democracy being run on a shoestring but it is important to maintain a sense of perspective and insight.

There are a total of 226 members in the two Houses. The annual overhead is just shy of €607,000 per member, – excellent value when considered as being merely one quarter of the 2008 remuneration of the abundantly superannuated Mr. Michael Fingleton, whose self-indulged, loss-making, speculators’ enterprise the taxpayer is now expected to bail out!

Apart from their own salaries, which cost €22.7 million, a further €18.7 million will be spent on secretarial support. A sum of €6.4 million is spent on travel which works out as an average of almost €44,000 per Dáil Deputy and €31.500 per Senator.

There are no fewer than 92 members of the 30th Dáil who bear the same surname since the first Dáil met on 19 January 1919 and the first Seaned met on 11 December 1922.

Many are blood relatives or descendants but some bearing the same surname have no direct relationship to each other. There are others who are related to each other but do not share a similar surname.

The surname among the 20 most popular Irish surnames that has had no bearer in the Houses of the Oireachtas is the name Murray.

There have been 20 Ryans’, 16 Lynches, 16 Byrnes’ and 14 O’Sullivans’ who have represented the nation.

There have also been 11 Kennedys’, 10 O’Reilly’s, 10 O’Briens’, 9 Collins, 9 Doyles’, 9 O’Connors’ and 9 Higgins’.

The presence of Bradys’, Burkes’, Hogans’ and Hayes’ was made 8 clan members.

The remaining surnames with multiple appearances in the Oireachtas are:

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bruton

Burton

Cowen

Cregan

Cullen

D’Arcy

Deasy

Dempsey

Devins

Dooley

English

Enright

Fahey

Ferris

Flanagan

Fleming

Gogarty

Gormley

Killeen

Naughton

O’Dowd

Roche

Sheehan

Sherlock

Timmins

Tracey

Upton

Wallace

White

Woods

Aylward
Brennan

Calleary

Conlon
Flynn

Hanafin

Haughey

Kitt

Martin

McEllistrim

McGinley

Mitchell

Moloney

Mulcahy

Noonan

O’Dea

O’Rourke

Allen

Ahern

Andrews

Breen

Browne

Carey

Coughlan

Kenny

Lenihan

McGuinness

McHugh

Moynihan

Nolan

O’Donoghue

Power

Smith

Wall

Barrett

Costello

Fitzpatrick

Kelly

O’Keeffe

O’Mahony

Ahern

Healy

Quinn

Gallagher

McGrath

Friday, May 8, 2009

Dublin by-elections: Is it time to vote NO to nepotism, cronyism and political inbreeding?

 

FG Labour Green Party

 

FFSinn Fein

 

Is the current economic crisis in Ireland also a demonstration of Irish society being suffocated by political in-breeding? I watched a report on the RTE News last night (Thursday, May 7th) which featured the candidates contesting the by-elections in Dublin South and Dublin North-Central. Fianna Fáil has chosen Maurice Ahern, an outgoing Dublin city councillor and former Lord Mayor of Dublin, as their candidate. He is also the older brother of the local ward healer, Bertie Ahern and is to fight an election apparently to be funded by a €40,000 loan repaid by Bertie’s former lover and national ‘meet and greet’ person, Celia Larkin, who had been provided with a ‘dig-out’ by the constituency party machine, unknown to many of its members until this was disclosed at The Mahon Tribunal.

Maurice is 70 years of age so he has enjoyed the freedom of a bus pass for 4 years. How many 70-year olds could win a Dáil election nomination if they did not enjoy the nepotism of a powerful relative? If this man has grandchildren would he not be better spending his time engaging with them, enriching their lives and enjoying the fitness and wellbeing he enjoys instead of attempting to develop a career in national politics? Surely it is time for a generational change after 31-years of Bertie’s incumbency.

The Fianna Fáil candidate chosen in Dublin South is Shay Brennan, the son of the late TD, Séamus Brennan. Shay works at Anglo Irish Bank and was reared in a family where his father made his mark in national politics at the tender age of 24 when the Jack Lynch selected him in 1973 to be General Secretary of Fianna Fáil. He succeeded deValera’s appointee, Tommy Mullins, one of the old guard who served in this role for 28 years from 1945. Séamus Brennan was charged with executing a generational transformation and modernising Fianna Fáil. He was a Jack Lynch nominee to the 14th Seanad in 1977 but a critical element of the Brennan transformation of Fianna Fáil was securing a Dáil seat for himself in Dublin South in 1981.  He retained this until his death in 2008 and held various ministerial offices since 1987, an era dominated by the Brennan-Kitt franchise and birthright.

If I was in Shay’s shoes, employed in Anglo Irish Bank, coping with the flak and turbulence that prevails there and the enquiries of the Garda Fraud Squad, perhaps I would, too, emulate what he is attempting. After all, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, according to the adage and if the people are docile enough to support me why not give it a lash?  If the son of his father’s colleague, the late Brian Lenihan, made it to Minister for Finance and his other son has a cushy, undemanding chauffeured sinecure as Minister of State, he too might feel that air of invincible entitlement that comes with political pedigree. Why would he not feel his future would be more inspiring and rewarding as a potential Minister for Finance, calling the shots and negotiating coalition deals instead of hosing the latrines in St Stephen’s Green and enduring the slings and arrows at Anglo Irish Bank?

There are now 36 members of the current Dáil who have succeeded a parent, spouse or grandparent in national politics and that includes five members of the Cabinet (Cowen, Coughlan, Lenihan, Hanafin, and O’Cuív) and five of the twelve Ministers of State (Andrews, Brady, Calleary, Haughey and Lenihan) – also known as the slimmed-down team. Then there are others who have wives, lovers, sons, daughters and in-laws working for them as administrators or drivers paid for by the taxpayer.  One Minister of State defended this practice on the grounds that the confidentiality of his phone calls when being driven might be vulnerable if he were to be driven by a member of the hoi polloi.  I realise how important it is to protect and defend intellectual property but is this not a bit overweening?

What is wrong with in-breeding and nepotism? Those who enter cats in shows place a huge focus on their pedigree as do people who are involved with thoroughbred racehorses. Pedigree breeds do not evolve randomly as a natural population would. They are developed and nurtured on the basis of particular criteria. The objective is to attempt to reproduce a particular physical characteristic. But there is no guarantee that if two closely related cats, for example,  breed that their kitten will actually inherit the desired characteristics but they could very easily inherit severe disadvantages.

Inbreeding in humans or, indeed, in plants creates a similarity in the DNA sequence that can create a genetic disorder, impair the thought process and reduce the fitness of the specimen concerned. They also have a slower growth rate and achieve a smaller adult size.  Do you see any evidence of this in the body politic?

This country is overwhelmed by economic problems associated with political disorder and dysfunctional behaviour. The economy has been allowed to career out of control like a high-speed vehicle that has no brakes, coolant or spare wheel. The current Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, succeeded Charlie McCreevy as Minister for Finance in September 2004. Many of the current failings are blamed on McCreevy.

It was he, for example, who instituted the office of Financial Regulator that has been shown to be comprehensively ineffective, light-touch and useless, led by a person at that time who, nudge-nudge, is now a board member of several banks, one of whom, Irish Life & Permanent Plc is dependent of the beleaguered taxpayer for support. The same person is also in charge of the CARB, the regulatory body that is supposed to keep the bean-counter antiseptic and fit for purpose. But the CARB is investigating the bank that its chairman is a director of and the individual concerned is going forward for re-election to the board of Irish Life & Permanent Plc at its AGM on May 13th. The cumulative annual reward for these directors was €934,000 in 2008 - €25,000 more than in 2007 because they were so exceptionally effective.

It was also McCreevy who inaugurated single-handed the Decentalization Programme in the public service whereby those transferring to backwater provincial hamlets would suffer the scourge of local property interests that a bonanza confers.

Cowan is a bright man supported by a delightful close family. But he is also the admiral of the fleet that hit the rocks and is listing aggressively. What could have done to avoid this crisis? A compass would have been handy and a flashlight would not have been out of place either. He could have kept an eagle eye on the escalating level of private sector debt and moderated the increase of this. When he engaged in partnership negotiations he could have flagged the impact of outcomes on our international competitiveness. 

I have heard Sweden being cited as a role model in the context of dealing with our banking debacle. Private sector credit in Sweden grew from 85% to 135% of GDP in the five years prior to the bursting of their construction bubble. Private sector credit in Ireland grew from 136% to 217% of GDP in the five years before our construction bubble burst. The voters would have preferred an economic policy that would provide a sustainable standard of living with modest gains rather than what has actually occurred. Furthermore, this fecklessness was cooked up by a coalition of bankers and builders who saw nothing whatsoever wrong in giving out titanic loans to borrowers who never were in a position to discharge them completely and fully. The spectacle of Boucher, now in charge of Bank of Ireland, is an iconic emblem of what happens when cronies, bankers and political cliques become chronically dependent on each other.  He personally advocated the proposed Dunne development in Ballsbridge with the planning authorities.  He now has to advocate capital for his bank in competition with the leading American banks who are scouring the world for billions of € in new equity.

What is needed in a credible candidate for high political office these days? Eamon Ryan TD, Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources appeared on a recent edition of the Late Late Show and made a perceptive observation about this. He said the system should be representative of the population as a whole, just like a jury. I agree with that but would add that qualities such as communications skills – which means a capacity to speak without cliché or profanity, integrity and intellectual curiosity are also important political talents. Evidence of potential political skills – policy understanding and advocacy and in the case of those charged with policy oversight and execution, an appropriate competency is mandatory.

The surprise decision by George Lee to stick his oar in on behalf of Fine Gael in Dublin South caught many off guard, including, it seems, his employers. He has a fine mind, a capacity to analyse complex problems that impact hugely on the public and communicate with ease.  His arrival has piqued the interest of voters.  But has George learned that when, in shopping centres, he embraces old ladies who are not wearing their false teeth, that he must not bruise their cheeks?

George’s participation in this election really puts it up to the Labour candidate, Alex White. His name has been floating around the periphery of public consciousness for some time but in a background ill-defined sort of way. Alex will need to shed the cloak of anonymity and emerge from opacity if he is to make his mark.

I also noted the Sinn Féin candidate in Dublin South, Shaun Tracey on that RTE News clip. His profile is so low I had to Google him several times to find his name, which was buried in a news story about George Lee. His own party web site doesn’t seem to claim him. Tracey was as inspiring as a random individual who repairs the punctured tyres of motor vehicles and didn’t seem to convey any inspiring wow factor whatsoever to the voters of Dublin South. The charisma and lucidity of Barrack Obama has eluded him.

The Green Party candidate, Elizabeth Davidson, seems to be getting some flak about the party participation in government.  My view is that political parties should be in existence to make an impact not to merely play a marginal, opposing role.  Politics is about achieving power and using power.  I think that notwithstanding the economic difficulties that the Green contribution to this government has been pretty decent.

The collective wisdom of electorates never ceases to amaze me. They rarely make random or unbalanced or primitive judgements. They collectively and seamlessly transfer their mandate from one generation to another, almost unprompted.  One of their considerations from now on maybe whether the birthright conferred by the Irish political parties has run its course and the noblesse oblige might be accordingly relieved of their intended destiny.  I fear Ireland will emulate African tribalism soon if inbreeding and nepotism is not curtailed.  The poverty component is already apparent, not just among the destitute but also among the concealed but overburdened coping classes.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

deBurca Scores an Own Goal!

I have felt since we first directly elected MEP's in 1979 that The Green Party (Comhaontas Glas) had something special to offer as a component of Ireland’s representation at The European Parliament.

Déirdre de Búrca seemed like a potentially interesting candidate despite never having won elected office in Dublin. The last Green MEP to represent Dublin was Patricia McKenna, whose droning, middle-aged whinging voice excited every misogynist instinct in my body and has become an obsolete irrelevance to electoral politics in Ireland.

It is said that British Royals neither ‘complain nor explain’. I was astonished to discover that the web site of The Green Party contains a press item, dated April 22, on behalf of Ms de Búrca explaining that she had rejected an invitation to run as a candidate for another party and attributed her decision to “many reasons”. Is this woman utterly naive or just totally lacking in political judgement and political self-esteem? What political party would allow itself to be demeaned by referring to a rival unproven political entity that is founded on nothing but the vacuous narcissism of an individual with nothing to offer but personal vanity and unascertainable credentials? The least that the electorate expect of any candidate representing a political party is loyalty to that party.

I must conclude that this maybe the nemesis of Ms de Búrca’s political career and the prospects of The Green Party doing the business at the European Parliament election on June 5th.